The Big Match Tactical View: Aston Villa v Sunderland

 

Michael Cox expects a scrappy battle in Monday night's relegation clash at Villa Park.

 

Aston Villa v Sunderland, Monday 8:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Aston Villa 2.34, Sunderland 3.45, The Draw 3.45.

 

While neither Aston Villa nor Sunderland have secured their place in next season's Premier League, both sides come into this relegation battle in decent form. Villa  have collected three wins in their last six matches, while Sunderland won back-to-back games against Newcastle and Everton to lift themselves away from the relegation  zone.

 

You couldn't find two more different managers than Paul Lambert and Paolo Di Canio - the Scot is the quiet, monotone boss that made his name as a cunning tactician,  while the Italian is loud, passionate and aggressive on the touchline. The two missed each other by a couple of months during their spells playing for Celtic in the  mid 90s, although they met earlier in the season, when Aston Villa squeezed past Di Canio's Swindon Town side 3-2 in the Carling Cup.

 

Lambert has dismissed the notion Di Canio has already proven a success at Sunderland - perhaps out of loyalty to Martin O'Neill, who he played under at Celtic - and  insists the Black Cats are still firmly in the relegation battle. A win for Villa would put the clubs level on 37 points.

 

There's been an obvious change in Sunderland's play under Di Canio, however. From his first match in charge at Stamford Bridge, Sunderland were considerably more  energetic and proactive without the ball, charging forward to press the opposition back four. That frantic, direct style of play continued in the games against  Newcastle and Everton - where Sunderland collected six points despite only managing around 35% of possession.

 

Therefore, expect Villa to have a decent amount of the ball in this contest. That isn't necessarily what they want - with Gabriel Agbonlahor and Andreas Wiemann on the  flanks, and Christian Benteke one of the best strikers in the league at collecting long balls, Villa often seem better when the opposition come onto them.

 

We should be set for a frantic start to the game - Sunderland will start positively, and Villa have young legs throughout the side. Lambert will be desperate for his  side to start well, as confidence has been his side's problem throughout the campaign, and a poor beginning to the match has so often resulted in a poor overall  performance.

 

The key zone is the battle between the Villa wingers and the Sunderland full-backs. Di Canio has encouraged his full-backs to push high up - not only overlapping when  the side has possession, but also moving into brave positions to make interceptions.

 

If they're caught out of position, the pace of Agbonlahor and Weimann will cause real problems. With three goals in his last five matches, Agbonlahor is a good back  for first goalscorer at 9.0. Benteke will cause problems against John O'Shea and Carlos Cuellar - on his return to Villa Park - with his sheer physicality.

 

At the other end, Danny Graham was a strange signing by O'Neill, and with top goalscorer Steven Fletcher injured and Connor Wickham (who started upfront in Di Canio's  first game, leading the pressing) a doubt, Sunderland are relying on a striker yet to score since his £5m transfer. Adam Johnson has looked livelier since Di Canio's  arrival - benefitting from playing slightly higher up the pitch - but remains too predictable in possession.

 

In the victories over Newcastle and Everton, all four of Sunderland's goals were strikes from the edge of the box. Their actual number of shots has been extremely low,  and it's unlikely Di Canio will be able to depend on such accurate long-range shooting for a sustained period. With a striker struggling for goals upfront, there's no  guarantee Sunderland will find the net at Villa Park.

 

Villa haven't kept a clean sheet since the start of December, however, so it's difficult to predict what will happen. Overall, this will be a scrappy game featuring  very little technical quality, and might be decided by mistakes. Aside from backing Agbonlahor to find the net first, I'm staying well clear of this one.

 

Recommended bet:

Back Agbonlahor to score first at 9.0

 

Bet HERE

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