The Betfair Contrarian: Why Cardiff won't win the Championship

25Mar 2013

England - The Championship

After yet more success in tipping England's spectacular grand slam capitulation the Betfair Contrarian is back to forecast more failure...

With just nine games to go in their Championship season, leaders Cardiff appear to be sitting pretty, seven points clear of Hull City.

However, this is Cardiff we're talking about, the Championship's perennial promotion chokers, and the Contrarian believes their grip on the title may be about to unravel faster than Rapunzel's locks at a witch's urging.

You can lay the Bluebirds for the title at 1.15

The curse of Cardiff

Watching Cardiff trying in vain each year to reach the Premier League is, for those old enough to remember, like watching Ivan Lendl trying to win Wimbledon in the 80s. The more they want it, the less likely they are to achieve it, (Lendl won all the other majors). Various owners, including the latest Malaysian millionaires, have ploughed money in to the club in order to try and take that elusive step, but the Cardiff curse has so far stood fast. It all started in 2008/09 when, backed by Peter Risdale, the Bluebirds had been spent large parts of the campaign in the play-off places before losing the last two games and agonisingly dropping down to seventh, for the first time in 24 matches.

Prepped for failure

The curse may have been born during that excruciating climax to the 2008/09 season, but it got even worse for Cardiff the following season and ever since has manifested itself in the form of play-off failure. The Bluebirds had a tremendous season in 2009/10, spending the entire season (after the first two games) occupying the play-off positions. They went on to lose the play-off final (after taking the lead twice), to a Blackpool side which had only hijacked the top six in the last two games. But the heartbreak didn't stop there; the psychological scars have been opened up twice since, with successive semi-final exits in the last two seasons for the Welsh.

Cardiff have a really tricky run in

Starting with their game against Peterborough next Saturday the out-of-form leaders have four matches against teams that they've already lost to this season. When you consider Malky Mackay's charges have lost only eight all season then this puts the awkwardness of the run-in into context. Currently scrambling for survival, the Posh are five unbeaten ahead of their encounter. Still to come also are a sizzling Nottingham Forest team under Billy Davies, who've just put together six wins on the spin and fellow play-off seeking Bolton - on a similar late burst - having triumphed in five of their last six. Charlton represent the fourth team to have conquered Cardiff this term and the unpredictable Londoners await them in April. A Watford-shaped obstacle also lies in wait to help Cardiff perform their annual trip-up.

Tigers can catch the Bluebirds

Everyone knows that cats enjoy nothing more than chasing birds. Hull City are currently poised to strike from second place with Cardiff flapping around in their sights, having garnered just five points from the last 12 available. Guided by the experienced hands of Steve Bruce the Humbersiders are clearly well placed to succeed. Bruce has been here before with his Birmingham side back in 2007, coming from off the pace in fourth to claim victory in four of the last five games, clinching automatic promotion just a year after being relegated from the Premier League. Hull still have to play Cardiff on the last day of the season and five of their other eight games are against teams 16th or lower in the Championship at present.