The 12 stats of Christmas

20Dec 2012

Premier League

Our stat man Andrew Atherley highlights some key figures that could produce winning bets over the busy Christmas and New Year programme...

Dynamic duo

The stats: Incredibly, in the 10 Premier League matches when both Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney have started together, Manchester United have a 100 per cent win record and all 10 have gone over 2.5 goals. The better value is probably over 2.5 goals when the strike duo are in the starting line-up.

Best chances: away to Swansea (Dec 23), home to Newcastle (Dec 26), home to West Brom (Dec 29), away to Wigan (Jan 1)

Boing boing Baggies

The stats: Despite their recent blip, West Brom are a reliable side at home to teams outside the big six with seven wins out of 11 in that category since their form took an upturn in February.

Best chances: home to Norwich (Dec 22) and Fulham (Jan 1)

Swansea on the road

The stats: Swansea have the best away record among teams outside the big six and their only bad result on the road was the 2-0 defeat at Aston Villa in September (their other losses were all against teams ranked in the top seven on home form). Back them for the win or at least on the Asian handicap when they visit teams ranked in the bottom half on home form (the ranking can be found here).

Best chances: away to Reading (Dec 26)

Fulham scoring for fun

The stats: Fulham are joint-top with Manchester United for games with over 2.5 goals (82 per cent) and two of their three games with under 2.5 goals came when they failed to score against the first-rate defences of Chelsea and Stoke. Back them to score and back over 2.5 goals when they play one of the poorer defences.

Best chance: home to Southampton (Dec 26)

Black-and-white Wigan

The stats: Wigan's big problem is that they concede first too often and have very little answer when they do. They lead the Premier League for conceding first (11 times in 17 matches) and have lost 10 out of 11 from that position. Lay Wigan when they concede first and lay their opponents when Wigan score first (three wins and three draws out of six from that position).

Best chance: keep an eye on them in-play

Fortress Britannia

The stats: Since exiting the Europa League in February, Stoke's home record against teams outside the big six is seven wins and four draws out of 11.

Best chance: home to Southampton (Dec 29)

This is Anfield

The stats: Liverpool, as they showed against Aston Villa, are still not a team to trust at home. They have failed at short odds-on three times out of six at Anfield this season and their home win rate is 33 per cent (having been 32 per cent last season).

Best chances: lay at home to Fulham (Dec 22) and Sunderland (Jan 2)

Spurs flying away

The stats: Tottenham are the most difficult team for the strugglers to handle apart from the two Manchester clubs. They are proving a good bet on the road against bottom-half teams, with three wins out of four.

Best chances: away to Aston Villa (Dec 26) and Sunderland (Dec 29)

Solid Hammers

The stats: West Ham have lost only two out of 11 against teams outside the big six. Having taken something from four of their six away games in that category, they are a solid Asian handicap bet.

Best chance: away to Reading (Dec 29)

Blues and twos

The stats: Chelsea are perceived as having a scoring problem but when they win, they win big. Five of their six wins against teams outside the big six have been by two-plus goals, making -2 on the Asian handicap a good longer-priced alternative to the straight win.

Best chances: home to Aston Villa (Dec 23), away to Norwich (Dec 26), home to QPR (Jan 2)

Royals wide open

The stats: Games with over 3.5 goals are in the majority for Manchester United and Reading at home, but Nemanja Vidic's imminent return to United's starting line-up may change their figures. By contrast, it is difficult to see how Reading will tighten up their leaky defence and over 3.5 goals remains a viable bet in their home games.

Best chances: home to Swansea (Dec 26) and West Ham (Dec 29)

Aguero-oooooooo

The stats: Having scored the title-winning goal last season, Sergio Aguero remains Manchester City's go-to striker at home and his record is phenomenal: he has scored in 59% of his home starts and is a great bet for anytime scorer.

Best chances: home to Reading (Dec 22) and Stoke (Jan 1)

Pick of the bets

Back West Brom to beat Norwich

Back Swansea to beat Reading

Back Over 2.5 goals in Fulham v Southampton

Back Stoke to beat Southampton

Back West Ham on Asian handicap v Reading