Swans to confirm the gulf in class

 

Swansea won't get a better chance of lifting a major trophy than Sunday's Capital One Cup final against Bradford, which on paper is the biggest mismatch in an English cup final since the modern league structure came into being. Surely the Swans can't fail says Andrew Atherley...

 

Recent history suggests the cup will be heading to south Wales, as no top-flight team has lost a final of the League Cup or FA Cup to a lower-league side in the Premier League era. There have been seven such finals in that period and the Premier League side has lifted the trophy in all of them, winning five in 90 minutes and two on penalties.

 

To some punters, no doubt, Swansea at 1.18 will be like buying money.

 

The last team from outside the top flight to win the League Cup were Sheffield Wednesday, who beat Manchester United 1-0 in 1991. Since then, five other lower-league teams have reached the final, with three losing in 90 minutes and two on penalties.

 

None of that will be much of a surprise, but strong favourites have struggled recently. In the last seven League Cup finals where more than 10 league places separated the two sides, the higher-placed team has not won in 90 minutes (four full-time draws and three defeats).

 

Four of the seven had under 2.5 goals, which is interesting as the general trend of the stats is in the other direction (eight of the other 13 finals in the Premier League era have had over 2.5 goals). The stats indicate the bigger mismatches tend to have under 2.5 goals, probably as a result of the lesser team setting out to defend, and Under 2.5 Goals catches the eye at 2.22.

 

Under 2.5 goals has occurred in four of the seven cup finals (League and FA) in the Premier League era that have involved a lower-league team. It is also notable that six of the seven have seen the top-flight side secure a 1-0 half-time lead (the other was goalless at the break) and Swansea to lead 1-0 at half-time is attractive at 3.55. The safer alternative is Swansea simply to lead at half-time at 1.87

 

Bradford, of course, are not even close to the class of the other lower-league teams that have reached finals in modern times, despite this season's extraordinary cup exploits. The only comparable achievement in reaching the final of this competition was way back in 1962 when Rochdale, from the fourth tier of English football, were beaten over two legs by Norwich, then in the second tier.

 

That makes it difficult to gauge how Bradford might perform, without making the blind assumption that Swansea will win easily. One measure with any cup final is how teams perform away from home and Bradford's form is not too bad - two wins, two draws and two defeats on the road in cup competitions this season, although they rank only 13th on away form in League Two.

 

Perhaps their best away result was the 0-0 at Wigan that led to a win on penalties in the fourth round of the Capital One Cup. A clean sheet is probably going to be needed again judging by Swansea's record this season.

 

We can get some idea of how Swansea might perform by looking at their cup results since they became a Premier League side at the start of last season. They have won four out of five cup matches against lower-league opponents (the sole defeat was soon after joining the Premier League, in August 2011, when they lost 3-1 at Shrewsbury in the League Cup) and four of the five have had over 2.5 goals - Swansea themselves have scored one, four, three, three and one.

 

The high likelihood of Swansea scoring is perhaps the most significant statistic in the match, as they have the impressive record of having lost only once this season in the 22 games when they have found the net (14 wins, seven draws and one defeat in all competitions).

 

Coupled with the stats about a half-time lead for Swansea, their win record when scoring points to Swansea/Swansea on the half-time/full-time at 2.1.

 

It is also worth considering Swansea off -1.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.08 as nine of their 14 wins have been achieved by two or more goals.

 

The only point at which Bradford might become favourites is if the final goes to penalties. Phil Parkinson's side have won their last nine penalty shootouts, including two already in this season's Capital One Cup against Wigan and Arsenal.

 

Recommended Bets

Back Swansea to lead at half-time @ 1.87

Back Swansea off -1.5 on the Asian handicap @ 2.08

 

Bet HERE

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