Swans to be shot down by Gunners

16Jan 2013

It's that time of the week for the big Wednesday multiple as Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Arsenal (HOME) @ 1.44 (4/9)

Arsenal host Swansea in their FA Cup third round replay live on ESPN at 19:30 this evening and I think The Gunners will exact revenge for their league defeat here back in December.

Arsene Wenger will be desperate to deliver a trophy this year as he has never been under this much pressure before as Arsenal boss. Some of the natives are restless and with the league title all but gone and slender hopes of a Champions League win, the FA Cup represents their best chance of silverware.

The initial tie finished 2-2 in Wales but the North Londoners have been fairly reliable at home this term, winning eight of 14 played in all competitions. They were dire in the 0-2 loss to the Swans in the league last month but I can't see a repeat of that at all.

Swansea are flying at present; undefeated in seven and one foot in the Capital One Cup final. That could be a key point here as the second leg of their semi with Chelsea happens next Wednesday and with the visit of Stoke in between, it is possible that Laudrup tweaks his starting XI slightly.

There aren't really any holes to pick in Swansea's form but sometimes a match outcome is determined by who wants it more, and for my money, Arsenal will be much more up for this than their opponents.

Bet 2: Braga (AWAY) @ 1.72 (8/11)

Braga delivered us the away win in our winning multiple a fortnight ago and I'm backing them to do the same again in the same competition.

It's the quarter final of the Taca da Liga in Portugal and Braga are having to travel to a side who are only four places below them in the Primeira Liga. The Archbishops are in decent nick at present though with the shock 3-2 defeat at Nacional on Saturday ending a six game unbeaten run.

José Peseiro's side have already won at this ground this season in the league and they've actually not lost to Vitoria Guimaraes in their last half dozen meetings.

Vitoria are generally pretty solid on their own patch but the Portuguese league isn't exactly known for its strength in depth and you don't have to be a top team to run up a few home wins.

Similarly to Arsenal in the first match I previewed, this competition represents Braga's best chance of a trophy and I don't expect them to slip up, despite being away from home.

Bet 3: Fiorentina v Roma (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.44 (4/9)

Goal fests in Italy are generally quite rare but with the current Roma team involved, goals are generally what happen.

It's our third cup competition of the multiple as Fiorentina take on Roma in the Copa Italia quarter-finals. The match result is hard to predict but with this pairs matches both averaging over three goals in Serie A, over 2.5 has to be the play.

Fiorentina are having a cracking campaign thus far although it's tailed off a touch recently as three defeats in five have seen them drop to fifth place in the table. They have scored 37 goals to date and four of their last five at home have all gone over 3.5 goals, with three of them actually going over 4.5.

Roma have a new man in charge and it seems that Zdeněk Zeman's motto is to simply score as many goals as they can. They're Serie A's top scorers with 43 netted from 20 games and their matches are averaging a whopping 3.85 each time. Four of their last six have gone over 3.5, with three going over 4.5 and two going over 5.5.

It may be a short price, but backing overs is definitely the way to go and at 1.44 (4/9) it still represents a touch of value.

Bet 4: Coventry v Tranmere (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.8 (4/5)

We finish in League One as leaders, Tranmere, make the journey south to take on Coventry in what I think will be a low scoring affair.

Coventry had been showing signs of revival under Mark Robins but three defeats in four have halted their surge up the table and knocked them out of the FA Cup. The goals had been flying in, but they were far more prolific away from home than they were at the Ricoh and 16 goal man David McGoldrick has left for Ipswich.

The Sky Blues have seen three of their last four in the league go under 2.5 at the Ricoh, and they have managed to net more than one on just three occasions from 13 fixtures in front of the meagre home support.

Tranmere have got back to winning ways after a bit of a wobble and it's now 12 points from a possible 12 in the league. Ronnie Moore's outfit have seen success on the road this term by keeping it pretty tight at the back and that is illustrated by the fact that they've kept 7 clean sheets in their 13 away matches.

Rovers have seen five of their last half dozen produce under 2.5 goals away from Prenton Park and I can see more of the same this evening against what could be a toothless Coventry side.

Recommended Multiple

Back Arsenal @ 1.44 (4/9); Back Braga @ 1.72 (8/11); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Roma @ 1.44 (4/9); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Coventry v Tranmere @ 1.8 (4/5)The Multiple pays approximately 6.49 (11/2)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.