Suarez-inspired Liverpool to make a strong start

It's crunch time for Liverpool as they bid to reach the knockout phase, and Kevin Hatchard thinks Luis Suarez can take advantage of a struggling Udinese defence.

Udinese vs Liverpool, Thu 18:00 BST, Live on ITV4

Match Odds: Udinese 4.1, Liverpool 2.02, the draw 3.65

 

When you get down to the final round of group matches in European competitions, motivation often becomes an important factor when deciding who to back. Udinese are out of the competition, after winning just one of their five matches so far. The Stadio Friuli has been a fortress in recent seasons, but this term Udinese needed a last-gasp equaliser to snatch a 1-1 draw at home to Anzhi, and they lost 3-2 in front of their own fans to Young Boys.

 

While Udinese have little to play for, Liverpool know only a win in Italy will guarantee a place in the last 32. Liverpool must at least match Young Boys' result at home to Anzhi, and with the Russians already through, Brendan Rodgers can't rely on them to put up too much of a fight. Liverpool have left skipper Steven Gerrard (who is ill) and key defender Daniel Agger at home, but tellingly star striker Luis Suarez has been included. The Uruguayan is suspended for the weekend's trip to West Ham, so it seems inconceivable that he won't start this match.

 

Suarez, who has scored ten goals in the Premier League and two in the Europa League, will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing an Udinese defence that's been struggling for some time. Since Udinese won 3-2 at Anfield on October 4, the Italians have shipped 23 goals in 12 games, keeping just one clean sheet in that period. Intriguingly, Opta tell us that Udinese have conceded the first goal in all five of their Europa League group games, while Liverpool have scored first in four of their five matches. On that basis, it's worth a look at backing Liverpool to be leading at Half Time at 2.64.

 

With Suarez on duty for Liverpool and neither team defending well in this competition, Over 2.5 Goals looks a bit big at 2.0. Ten of Udinese's last 13 games have featured Over 2.5 Goals, as have five of Liverpool's last ten matches. If Udinese were to buck the trend and score early, Liverpool will have to open the game up.

 

The only thing that puts me off backing the Liverpool win at a surprisingly short 2.02 is their second-half performances in Europe. Opta tell us that seven of the nine goals they have conceded in the group stage have come after half-time.

 

Recommended Bets:

Back Liverpool to lead at Half Time at 2.64

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.00

 

Bet HERE !

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