Strachan to enjoy winning start

6Feb 2013

Betfair

Armed with a bulging set of Opta statistics Jaymes Monte has picked out his best bets for the International fixtures involving the Home Nations...

Scotland 1.6 v Estonia 7.6; The Draw 4.1

Wednesday, KO 19:45, Live on Sky Sports 1

Gordon Strachan's reign as Scotland manager begins with a home fixture against Estonia. The Scots have never lost a game against Estonia (W5 D2) and have won all three previous home meetings, scoring eight and conceding just three in the process.

Despite the largely unsuccessful tenures of Craig Levein and George Burley, Scotland have remained a difficult side to beat on home soil and go into this game having lost only four of their last 25 home games in all competitions, with those defeats coming against sides featured in the top eight of the Fifa rankings - Italy, Argentina, Netherlands and Spain.

Factor in the "new-manager effect" and the 1.6 about a Scotland victory looks more than fair.

Jordan Rhodes is expected to get the nod to start up top for the Tartan Army, and looks a solid bet to score anytime at odds of 2.4. The Blackburn forward has scored eight goals in his last eight appearances in all competitions, and seven in his last six league games.

Wales 2.9 v Austria 2.7; The Draw 3.4

Wednesday, KO 19:45, Live on Sky Sports 3

Chris Coleman's only victory as Wales manager came in rather fortuitous circumstances when his side beat Scotland 2-1 at the City of Cardiff Stadium last October. Other than that one victory his team have lost six, conceded 15 and scored just one.

Austria, meanwhile, are an improving nation who have recently beaten Turkey, Ukraine and Finland and suffered only a narrow 2-1 defeat at the hands of Germany earlier in the campaign. They've also kept clean sheets in four of their last six games and drawn two of their last three away games 0-0.

At odds of 1.8 Under 2.5 goalslooks to be the best bet of this match, while the draw at 3.4 and 0-0 at 11.0 are also worth a punt.

Malta 3.7 v Northern Ireland 2.2; The Draw 3.45

Wednesday, KO 18:30

Northern Ireland have drawn their last three games 1-1. Two that they'll be extremely disappointed about - at home to Luxembourg and Azerbaijan - and one that goes down as one of their greatest nights in recent history - away to Portugal.

The last time that these two sides met - August 2005 - the match also ended 1-1. It is a 7.0 chance that this one finishes with the same scoreline.

Opta also inform us that Northern Ireland have lost seven of their last eight away games, with their most recent away win coming in September 2010. While Malta have won four of their last seven games, their best run since 2001-02.

You'd need to be brave, or foolish, to back Michael O'Neill's side at odds of 2.2 here.

Republic of Ireland 2.72 v Poland 2.96; The Draw 3.35

Wednesday, KO 19:45, Live on Sky Sports 2

Ireland's record against Poland is pretty poor, having won only five of their previous 23 meetings. They also come into this game having lost three of their last four home games, conceding 10 goals in those three defeats.

Poland, meanwhile, have won their last two matches by 4-1 scorelines, have scored exactly two goals in three of their last four away games and have lost just one of their last six fixtures.

In the Match Odds market the 2.96 about an away win looks to be the value bet, while Poland's proficiency in front of goal recently suggests that the 2.44 about Over 2.5 goals is also worth an investment.

Recommended Bets

Back Scotland to win @ 1.6

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.8 in Wales v Austria

Back Poland to win @ 2.96

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.44 in ROI v Poland