Spurs to please AVB and finish with a flourish

5Dec 2012

Europa Liga

Tottenham's Europa League progress has been far from smooth, but Kevin Hatchard expects them to qualify for the last 32 with a comfortable victory against Panathinaikos.

Tottenham vs Panathinaikos, Thu 20:05 BST, Live on ITV4

Match Odds: Spurs 1.33, Pana 12.5, the draw 5.7

At this point in the competition I have to give credit to Spurs boss Andre Villas-Boas. Critics of the Europa League seem to be queuing around the block to have a pop at the tournament, but AVB (who won it with Porto two seasons ago) has backed the competition and has regularly selected strong teams. If every manager had his attitude, the competition wouldn't feel like an unloved geek at a party, who watches on in despair as his flash mate the Champions League snogs the hot girl on the dancefloor.

Despite Villas-Boas' commitment, Spurs have actually found the competition tough going. They have won just once (a 3-1 home win against Maribor), and have drawn the other four games. Spurs were outplayed by Lazio in Rome on Matchday Five, but they escaped with a goalless draw thanks to an outrageously good goalkeeping display by Hugo Lloris.

The mathematics are now simple. Spurs will reach the last 32 with a win or a draw, but defeat to Panathinaikos will see the Greeks qualify instead. It's hard to envisage a Pana victory - they have already lost 3-0 at Maribor and 3-0 at Lazio. Pana have struggled to score on their travels all season, drawing a blank in six of their ten away matches.

Star man Gareth Bale is out injured, but I still fully expect Spurs to field a strong team and win this game. I don't think AVB will leave much to chance, and if Tottenham take control of the match early on key players can be substituted. Odds of 1.33 for the home win are prohibitively short, so how can we beef them up? Bearing in mind Pana's poor goalscoring record away from home, backing Spurs to Win to Nil is attractive at 2.16. The Opta stats give further credence to this bet - Pana have a shot-to-goal conversion rate of just 8% in the Europa League, while only two teams in the competition have faced fewer shots on target than Spurs.

It's also worth a look at backing Tottenham/Tottenham in the HT/FT market at 1.93, which has paid out in each of Spurs' last two home games. Spurs will be keen to wrap up qualification quickly, and avoid a repeat of last season's embarrassing exit.

Recommended Bets:

Back Spurs to Win to Nil at 2.16

Back Tottenham/Tottenham in the HT/FT market at 1.93