Spurs to pass French exam, Magpies to fail Ukrainian test

21Feb 2013

Europa Liga

Our Europa League man Kevin Hatchard predicts mixed fortunes for the Premier League teams involved in Thursday's early Europa League kick-offs.

Metalist Kharkiv vs Newcastle United, Thu 18:00 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Metalist 1.91, Newcastle 4.5, the draw 3.6

It's hard to escape the idea that Newcastle may have already missed their chance to win this tie. Last week's goalless draw at St. James' Park was tough on the Magpies - they had two perfectly good Papiss Cisse goals disallowed for offside - but a full-strength team also squandered several excellent opportunities to grab a first-leg advantage.

With a crucial Premier League clash with Southampton coming up on Sunday, Newcastle boss Alan Pardew has admitted he won't be able to field such a powerful line-up in the second leg. Striker Shola Ameobi and winger Sylvain Marveaux are likely to play after impressing as substitutes last Thursday, but it remains to be seen whether top stars like Yohan Cabaye, Moussa Sissoko and Fabricio Coloccini will be risked from the start of the match.

Metalist showed no signs of rustiness last week, despite coming back from a long winter break. The slick passing and clever movement that have become Metalist trademarks were in evidence on Tyneside, and despite the loss of star striker Taison to Shakhtar Donetsk, the Ukrainians still carried a goal threat. Midfielders Jose Sosa and Marlos are dangerous going forward, and Brazilian schemer Cleiton Xavier is a threat from both open play and set-pieces.

Metalist have won all four of their home games in this season's Europa League (including a 2-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen), and I think they will have too much quality for a weakened Newcastle side. The Ukrainians conceded just one goal at home in the group stage, and I think the price of 1.91 for the home win is pretty generous. It's worth considering that Newcastle haven't won any of their four European away games this term, and in the Premier League they have won on just one of their 13 road trips.

Recommended Bet: Back Metalist to win at 1.91

Lyon vs Tottenham Hotspur, 18:00 BST, Live on ITV4

Match Odds: Lyon 2.34, Spurs 3.4, the draw 3.5

Gareth Bale's heroics (two sumptuous free-kicks, one at the end of each half) have given Spurs a slender 2-1 advantage going into this second leg in France, and I suspect that will be enough of a platform to take the North Londoners into the last 16.

Lyon recovered well from that first-leg defeat at the weekend as they won 4-0 at Bordeaux, but they must now do what no other team has managed in this season's Europa League - they must beat Spurs. Tottenham won two and drew four of their group games, and the only match that presented a serious danger was a goalless draw at Lazio in which the Italians squandered a host of chances.

Spurs have an excellent away record in the Premier League, winning seven of their 13 games, and I think their speed on the break could be crucial in this encounter. At some stage Lyon will have to open up in search of the goal they need to win the tie, and I think the pace of players like Bale and Aaron Lennon can catch Les Gones out on the counter.

Lyon will draw strength from their outstanding home record in Ligue 1 (8W, 2D, 2L) and the fact they won all three of their Europa League group games at Stade Gerland. On the other hand, Remi Garde's men have failed to win their last two home games, drawing 0-0 with Evian Thonon and losing 3-1 to Lille.

Spurs have had a week's rest since the first leg, and their next Premier League game isn't until Monday evening. On that basis I would expect Europa League devotee Andre Villas Boas to field a strong line-up, and if he does I think their pace and power will be enough to secure the result they need. Layers should consider opposing Lyon at 2.34, but alternatively you could back Spurs +0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.93.