Spoils to be shared in Tyne-Wear derby

12Apr 2013

Betfair

Not only are there some enticing Premier League games this week, Paul Robinson also has the FA Cup semi-finals to get his teeth stuck into. Here are his Fixed Odds selections:

Aston Villa v Fulham

Back Aston Villa @ 2.3 (13/10)

Back Aston Villa to be leading at HT @ 2.9 (19/10)

Aston Villa have moved out of the relegation zone but they are still in a huge battle for survival and I'm backing them to get their fourth win in five matches on Saturday.

Paul Lambert's side have really dug in in recent weeks - beating fellow strugglers Reading and QPR and then earning an impressive victory at the Britannia Stadium last weekend. The defence are still conceding - albeit not as many - but at the other end, Gabby Agbonlahor has started chipping in with goals to add to those of Christian Benteke's.

The Villans were superb at Stoke in their 3-1 victory and you could really see the confidence running through the young side. Back on home soil on Saturday, you'd expect the players to be buzzing and up for it from the off, especially as the crowd have started rallying behind them.

Fulham's five match unbeaten streak was ended at Newcastle on Sunday - as predicted here - and with little left to play for, I just can't see them getting anything from the game at Villa Park.

Dimitar Berbatov is the danger man but he isn't much of a physical presence, and that is what the Villa defenders have been struggling against this term. Martin Jol's men play a decent brand of football but that will suit the opposition and I just think the desire of the home team will see them through.

Aston Villa are a fantastic price at 2.3 (13/10) and another bet that stands out is the 2.9 (19/10) about them to be leading at half time. If all matches had ended at the break this season, then Villa would be in the top six of the table and not the bottom six.

Newcastle v Sunderland

Back the draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back Steven Taylor to score first @ 23.0 (22/1)

It's the Tyne-Wear derby at high noon this Sunday and I think that those who tune into Sky Sports One will see the spoils shared.

Newcastle continued their excellent recent form at St James' Park by beating Fulham thanks to a last gasp Papiss Cisse winner. Cisse hasn't lived up to the heights of his debut season but he is slowly running into a bit of form and that was his fifth goal in eight games for the Geordies.

The Magpies must play Benfica before this match though and while they have managed to achieve good results following on from Europa games, two factors concern me about this one. Firstly, the Sunderland match is a huge derby and you can guarantee it will be played from a high tempo from the off. Secondly, the kick off is midday and that's at least three hours less rest than they'd usually have, and while that doesn't sound much, professional sport is all about fine margins.

Paulo Di Canio started his Sunderland reign with a defeat at Stamford Bridge, but that was to be expected really and this match will be his first true test. The enigmatic Italian has a lot to do to turn things around though as his side have picked up just three points from a possible 27 and they are now level with Wigan, who have a game in hand.

Scoring goals has been the issue for The Black Cats this term as with just 34 in the for column, they have the third lowest total in the division. Steven Fletcher has netted nearly a third of those but he's out injured so somebody else will need to step up. Connor Wickham was brought in from the cold by Di Canio last week so you'd have to assume that he will get the nod again over the Gateshead born Danny Graham. The England U21 international was bought for £8m by Steve Bruce and while he has huge potential, he's not lived up to it so far, albeit from limited chances.

I expect this one to be a hard fought affair, maybe even with a sending off. Three of the last four between these pair have finished in a draw and that seems the value to me at odds of 3.4 (12/5). If you want one at a speculative price then I'd recommend a punt on Steven Taylor to score first at 23.0 (22/1). He is a doubt for their Europa League game but I'd imagine he'll be playing at the weekend and the centre half is always a handful from set pieces. He has scored 11 times in his Newcastle career and with no goal since 2011, he is most certainly due.

Chelsea v Man City

Back Man City @ 2.4 (7/5)

Back Man City to win 1-0 @ 8.0 (7/1)

It's the FA Cup now as Chelsea battle Man City at Wembley Stadium, live on ITV1 at 16:00 this Sunday. City are the favourites to win this one and I'm inclined to agree as Chelsea are in the midst of a fixture pile up that will hurt their chances.

Man City need to win the FA Cup to save their season. While it won't be a successful campaign even if they do lift the trophy, it could well keep Roberto Mancini in his job for another year. They haven't been firing on all cylinders this term but they did win at Old Trafford on Monday - their sixth victory from seven fixtures.

Sergio Aguero scored the winner against United and I'd expect him to be restored to the starting line up on Sunday. The Argentine hasn't lived up to the dizzy heights of last season but he has still netted 14 times, despite being plagued with niggling injuries.

Vincent Kompany is another man back to fitness and his presence strengthens the City backline considerably. Even though he's only started 22 of their 31 league games, the defending champions still have the best defensive record in the division with just 27 conceded.

Chelsea have won their last three matches but they have to travel to Russia on Thursday night for a Europa League second leg clash against Ruben Kazan. The Blues hold a 3-1 advantage going into the game but Benitez will have to field a pretty strong team if he wants to progress and it is highly likely that the European competition will take precedence over the FA Cup in Rafa's mind.

Demba Ba has seemingly won his fitness race for the match on Sunday so he will almost certainly lead the line. He hasn't managed to repeat his Newcastle form though and while he has scored five in 16, two of those came at the start of January in a 5-1 hammering of Southampton.

Ashley Cole, Gary Cahill and Ryan Bertrand are also injury concerns and while I respect Rafa's ability to rotate his squad to the best of its ability, I think the Man City game could be a bridge too far.

Manchester City are a fantastic price at 2.4 (7/5) to get the job done in 90 minutes and given the return of Kompany to the back four, I'd also suggest backing them to win 1-0 at 8.0 (7/1)

Recommended Bets

Back Aston Villa @ 2.3 (13/10)

Back Aston Villa to be leading at HT @ 2.9 (19/10)

Back a Newcastle v Sunderland draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back Steven Taylor to score first @ 23.0 (22/1)

Back Man City @ 2.4 (7/5)

Back Man City to win 1-0 @ 8.0 (7/1)

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.