Spoils shared on Super Sunday

10Jan 2013

Premier League

After a profitable week in the FA Cup, Paul Robinson turns his attention back to Betfair's Fixed Odds markets for the Premier League. Here are his selections:

Norwich v Newcastle

Back Norwich @ 2.15 (23/20)

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.72 (8/11)

The Geordies travel to East Anglia badly in need of a result but I really can't seem them getting one and Norwich can't be left un backed at odds-against.

Norwich have slipped to 12th after four defeats on the spin but they faced a couple of tricky away trips in that period and their home matches were against Chelsea and Manchester City. Chris Hughton's men performed with credit in all four of those games, losing by only one goal in each, and they had a confidence boosting victory over the in form Peterborough in the cup last weekend.

At Carrow Road, The Canaries had won their previous five before the two recent losses, including victories over Arsenal and Manchester United. They kept three clean sheets during that run but since regular keeper, John Ruddy, became injured, they haven't kept a clean sheet in the league.

Newcastle are in a state of disarray at the moment having slipped to 15th in the table and they were knocked out of the FA Cup at Championship side, Brighton. The Magpies haven't won on the road from 16 attempts in all competitions this term and they've lost their last seven in a row, conceding 21 goals in the process.

There appears to be some value in the goal markets as over 2.5 goals is available to back at 1.72 (8/11). Newcastle may have lost top scorer, Demba Ba, but seven of their last nine goals away from St James' were scored by other players and they have only failed to get on the score sheet on two occasions. Add in Norwich's vulnerability since Ruddy got injured and Newcastle's leaky defence, and we have the recipe for a goal fest.

Stoke v Chelsea

Back the draw @ 3.3 (23/10)

Back a 1-1 correct score @ 6.5 (11/2)

I've opposed Chelsea in recent weeks to my cost but I'm opposing them again as I can't see them beating Stoke at the Britannia.

Stoke are in 10th place after losing just four of their 21 league matches so far this season. Only the Manchester clubs and Everton have lost less and The Potters remain undefeated at home - a record they've had going for almost an entire year now. Since the loss to Sunderland at the start of February last year, Stoke have played 17, won eight and drawn nine.

Tony Pullis has built from the back and the three goals they conceded against Southampton almost doubled the number of goals against at home this term.

Chelsea put their shock defeat to QPR behind them with a resounding cup win at St Mary's on Saturday but the fixtures are coming thick and fast for The Blues and that means rotation. Rafa's side have a Capital One Cup semi final with Swansea on Wednesday and a rescheduled league game with The Saints on the 16th.

They may have won all four of their recent away matches but I have genuine concerns about their ability to perform when not at full strength, and it's doubtful that they will have their best team out for this one. I can't see them losing though as Stoke tend to draw more than they win, so backing the draw at 3.3 (23/10) seems like the best move.

If you want something at a bigger price then 1-1 at 6.5 (11/2) looks like value as Chelsea have only kept two clean sheets on the road in the league and Stoke should be able to limit their attack to a single goal.

Arsenal v Man City

Back the draw @ 3.1 (21/10)

Back a 2-2 correct score @ 11.0 (10/1)

Arsenal v Manchester City is one half of a huge double bill of Premier League football on Sunday and I think that the spoils will be shared at full time.

Arsenal have put their embarrassing League Cup exit to Bradford behind them by going five unbeaten, winning three and drawing two. After beating Wigan and thrashing both Reading and Newcastle, The Gunners picked up two away draws, one in the league and one in the FA Cup.

Arsene Wenger's side have played nine at the Emirates so far this league campaign and the results have been mixed. While they have won five of them, they did lose to Chelsea and Swansea and failed to beat Sunderland and Fulham. A disappointing return of only three cleans sheets hasn't helped but at least they are scoring again with 17 in their last five in front of their own fans.

Man City are seven points adrift of Man United and they look booked for second spot come May unless something quite unexpected happens. Roberto Mancini's side have won their last three in all competitions but it's likely that they will have to do without the services of Sergio Aguero as he is having some trouble with his hamstring. Eden Dzeko and Carlos Tevez are likely to lead the line and although they are in goalscoring form, the Argentine will be a huge miss.

The defending champions have drawn four of their 10 away fixtures this year and they haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last three. All this points to a score draw to me and while that can be backed at 3.1 (21/10), a 2-2 correct score stands out at 11.0 (10/1) as well.

Recommended Bets

Back Norwich @ 2.15 (23/20)

Back Over 2.5 goals in Norwich v Newcastle @ 1.72 (8/11)

Back a Stoke v Chelsea draw @ 3.3 (23/10)

Back a 1-1 correct score in Stoke v Chelsea @ 6.5 (11/2)

Back an Arsenal v Man City draw @ 3.1 (21/10)

Back a 2-2 correct score in Arsenal v Man City @ 11.0 (10/1)

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.