Spanish MotoGP Betting Preview: Yamahas to strike back at Jerez

3May 2013

MotoGP

The great Wayne Rainey always used to say the season doesn't start until you get to Europe. We're two races down as we arrive at Jerez, Spain, and rookie Marc Marquez leads the way. Trent Burton thinks that's about to change.

Marquez become the youngest ever winner in the history of Grand Prix motorcycle racing a fortnight ago in Texas with a flawless display more reminiscent of a veteran than a 20-year-old in his second race. But Texas was a level playing field. A new track for everyone. While that certainly speaks volumes for his achievement, and talent, it also means he'll be up against it this weekend.

Jorge Lorenzo, Dani Pedrosa and Valentino Rossi all have wins at Jerez and that experience counts. Yes, Marquez has ridden here plenty of times on a 125 and Moto2 machine but with MotoGP, it might as well be a new circuit. The braking points, the apexes - everything is different other than what corner to expect next. Getting round it is another story. Make no mistake, Marquez will be up there challenging, because he's just that good but his best chance for a win this season was always going to be Texas. The exchange has him at 6.6 for the win which is about right as it will take some mistakes from others for him to win this weekend.

Marquez will face the same difficulty at each 'old' track they visit this year but in the case of Jerez it's magnified. This has always been one of the key testing tracks and most guys have ridden so many laps here they've worn a groove into the place.

And in the case of Lorenzo and Pedrosa, they won't want the new darling of the Spanish media beating them at home. Lorenzo's Friday practice was a thing of beauty. His pace, his smoothness and above all else, his consistency was incredible today, even by his usual lofty standards. He was hugely disappointed with how the Yamaha performed in the US, but Jerez is a track both he and the bike enjoy. A back of 2.46 for a Lorenzo win seems a solid way to double your investment on Sunday.

Two races down and Pedrosa is yet to beat his new team-mate. If he doesn't do it here, the whispers in HRC will start to get louder and louder. He's a 3.8 shot for the win, which is a good reflection on where he's at right now. I don't think he'll have what it takes to match Lorenzo this weekend but, although he'd never admit it, just beating Marquez on Sunday will feel like a mini victory.

Lorenzo's biggest challenger for the win could well come from another Yamaha. And no, not his team-mate Rossi. Cal Crutchlow produced arguably the best ride of his career in Texas in taking fourth. He's had better results but when you factor in it was not a track suited to the Yamaha, he'd never tested there unlike some, the team lost a day of setup when the garage caught fire on Thursday and how close he was to third it was a stunning effort for the man from Coventry. He was second to Lorenzo by a small margin on Friday, and looked as comfortable on the bike as he's ever been. Crutchlow also lead the way at pre-season testing at Jerez and 18.0 for a first ever win is, admittedly, quite a risky punt given how much would have to fall his way, but anything over even money for a Top 3 is worth a bet and the 7.0 on offer on the Sportsbook for the Brit to stick it on pole is well and truly worth your stake.

We've got a sunny weekend predicted for Jerez so while it may not produce the most exciting race we'll see this year, I'm tipping you will get to see Lorenzo put on a masterclass worthy of repeat viewings.

Recommended Bets

Back Jorge Lorenzo for the win at 2.46