Southampton v Everton: Saints offer value despite ludicrous Adkins sacking

21Jan 2013

England - Premier League

Most have been left baffled by recent events at St Mary's, but Jaymes Monte still believes Southampton can get something from this game...

Monday 20:00, Sky Sports 1

Southampton 4.2 v Everton 2.04; The Draw 3.6

After a disastrous start to the season Southampton are now beginning to look like a side that belong in the Premier League. Recent draws against Chelsea and Arsenal offer signs that the Saints players believe that they are the equal of their opponents week-in, week-out and that they can establish themselves in this division.

All of which makes the shock sacking of Nigel Adkins on Friday all the more surprising.

There's no doubting that Mauricio Pochettino is an exciting and talented manager, and he could go on to do very well at Southampton, but the timing of Adkins' dismissal and the lack of respect shown, at least publicly, to a man who has taken the club from League One to the Premier League is nothing short of disgraceful.

Turning attentions back to this Monday's game, Everton also have every right to feel a newfound sense of belonging. The Toffees are now established in the Premier League's top six sides, and it would no longer be considered a major shock if they were to secure a top-four finish and Champions League football for next season.

Suffice to say that we have two teams high in confidence and can expect an entertaining game of football this Monday night.

Match Odds

Everton arrive at St Mary's having lost just one of their last nine Premier League away games (W3 D5 L1), while nine of their last 16 matches have ended as draws and the other seven have all produced 2-1 scorelines (five in favour of the Toffees and two against).

David Moyes' side are extremely difficult to beat, and when they do win or lose it is rarely by anything other than the slenderest of margins.

Southampton's recent form is also impressive and under scrutiny stands up against most other Premier League sides. The Saints have lost only two of their last 12 league games, having lost eight and won one of their opening 10.

At 2.04 I feel that the odds on an away win are more than slightly disrespectful towards Southampton and their recent form. And as a consequence the 4.2 available on a home win is too big. That is presuming, as I think we have to, that Adkins' departure won't have too much of an adverse effect on the Southampton players.

The 'play it safe' punt is a straight-up lay of the visitors at skinny prices, but I'm more inclined to take advantage of the 4.2 available on a win for the home team.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Despite Everton's impressive recent record on their travels Tim Howard has not kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight Premier League away matches.

On the other hand, only four of Southampton's 11 home matches this season have finished with more than 2.5 goals.

It's also interesting to note that there have been fewer than 2.5 goals in nine out of 12 Premier League games with Jack Cork in the Saints side, while eight of the 10 Premier League games in which he hasn't featured have seen more than 2.5 goals. Having now fully recovered from a knee injury Cork should be in the starting XI this Monday.

Regardless of this interesting Cork-related stat, Under 2.5 goals looks to be the value bet at odds of 2.14.

To Score

Nikica Jelavic scored twice in Everton's 3-1 win over Southampton at Goodison Park earlier this season, but has since only scored three Premier League goals. The Croatian looks too short at odds of 2.5 in the To Score market and could be worth a tentative lay.

Rickie Lambert could be promoted to the starting XI this Monday after making an immediate impact from the substitute's bench against Chelsea on Wednesday. No Englishman has scored more Premier League goals (10) than the Saints legend this season and he looks a much better bet in this market at odds of 3.1.

Recommended Bets

Back Southampton to win @ 4.2

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.14