Sony Open WTA Betting: Six for Serena in Miami

20Mar 2013

WTA új

It's time for the WTA's stars to trade the Californian desert for the Florida Keys and the Sony Open. Guy McCrea discusses who will come out on top in Miami...

I've always found March to be a funny section of the tennis calendar. Two of the biggest tour events in the season, bunched back-to-back.

The dust has barely settled on Maria Sharapova's stunning final demolition of Caroline Wozniacki at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells and here we are getting ready for another equally prestigious, historic tour event - the Sony Open at Miami's Crandon Park.

Some members of the media may talk up Indian Wells as a bigger event nowadays than Miami. With the men's event and all its absentees this year, they may have a point. But on the WTA - like the bodybuilders who strut their stuff on South Beach - Miami remains super-stacked. It has similar points, prize money and prestige to Indian Wells. Yet it also owns an even stronger draw, thanks to the presence of Serena Williams.

As she and her sister Venus have done every year since 2001, Serena skipped Indian Wells. Here's an excellent piece on the reasons why.

The world number one hasn't played a WTA event since losing the Doha final to Victoria Azarenka. Serena withdrew from Dubai with a back injury.

It all means the American (trading around 2.0 favourite on Betfair to win the 2013 Sony Open) has now had a decent chunk of time to get back 100% healthy for an event where she has enjoyed huge success and one where she feels firmly at home on tour.

Serena lives only 70 miles up the interstate in nearby Palm Beach. She has dominated the Crandon Park hardcourts, racking up five career titles - a record she shares with Steffi Graf. Fresh, fit and motivated, I understand why the markets have her as the favourite to add a record sixth title at the end of the fortnight.

Yes, you may recall that I backed Serena to win in Doha and she came up just short. You can also spin Serena's Miami record around and point out that she last made the final back in 2009. Indeed, you can argue the 'pudding bowl' super-slow hardcourt now in place there doesn't exactly aid her attacking game. Who can forget Serena totally frustrated as she subsided to Wozniacki on a windy Miami night last year?

All decent points - but I still fancy Serena to break new ground and make it six Miami titles.

There is good reason to expect another strong run from Sharapova (3.75 to win.) Like Serena, the Russian knows Florida very well having grown up there, and she has reached the Miami final four times in her career, including last year where she lost to Agnieszka Radwanska.

After showing scratchy form (albeit without dropping a set!) to make the Indian Wells final, Sharapova raised her level superbly to smoke Wozniacki. It was the Russian's first hardcourt title in 18 months and has lifted her back up to number 2 in the WTA rankings. For me, it was also her best match performance since she produced a stellar week to triumph in Stuttgart last year.

I back Sharapova to go deep again in Miami this time, but to again come up short. Only two woman have ever managed to complete the Indian Wells-Miami double - Steffi Graf did it in both 1994 and 1996, while Kim Clijsters managed to do so in 2005. That statistic - plus the presence of Serena - doesn't persuade me Sharapova will become the third this fortnight.

There are big question marks over Azarenka's (4.2 to win) fitness after her quarter final withdrawal against Wozniacki in Indian Wells. The Australian Open champion owns a good record in Miami with two titles, including victory over Serena in the 2009 final. Azarenka remains undefeated in 2013 and insists her ankle is only a small issue. If Azarenka is healthy, then she is the main threat to Serena here. But it's a big if.

Of the other contenders - even considering Wozniacki's upturn in form in recent weeks, and the fact that Radwanska is defending champion in Miami - it remains very difficult to see outside of the WTA's 'big three' in the elite hardcourt events if they are fit and healthy.

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