Road to Wembley ends in Birmingham for Bradford

22Jan 2013

England - Capital One Cup

Bradford travel south to Birmingham with one foot in the final of the Capital One Cup, however Paul Robinson thinks that Aston Villa will have the last laugh and progress, with all the action live on Sky Sports One at 19:45.

Two weeks ago I suggested a lay of Aston Villa for the first leg of this tie and I was proved right as Bradford ran out 3-1 winners. Today though the League Two side are odds-on to qualify and I find that to be a touch too short.

Paul Lambert's Villa team have blown hot and cold this year, mostly cold I will admit, but they have shown signs in recent weeks that they're turning the temperature up again. They led 2-0 away to West Brom before being pegged back to 2-2 on Saturday and the week before that they only lost to Southampton thanks to a hotly disputed penalty.

It took an inspired goalkeeping performance from Matt Duke at Valley Parade to restrict the Villans to one goal a fortnight ago and the stats show that the Premier League club had more of the possession and more shots on target.

Bradford have hardly been in top form themselves and they've lost four of their last six matches, the last one being a 4-1 thumping from Crewe in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy. Away from home they are without a victory in five and they've conceded two or more in four of those fixtures.

The Bantams have been fearless in this competition thus far, overcoming Wigan and Arsenal, and gaining a two goal advantage at the halfway point of this tie, but now that Wembley is so close, this is the time where nerves will begin to jangle.

Phil Parkinson also has the problem of how to approach the match as they don't need to win, in fact they don't even need a draw, and this uncertainty could prove their undoing if they get caught between two stools.

It's worth remembering that this is a Premier League club taking on a League Two club at home. They only need to win 2-0 to progress on away goals (after extra time) and that isn't much of a stretch to me. I simply can't have Bradford to qualify at around the 1.82 mark and that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.