Rep of Ireland v Poland: Stalemate in store at the Aviva

6Feb 2013

Betfair

Daniel McDonnell previews Rep of Ireland's first international of the season, and believe that the visitors will gain at least a share of the spoils in a low-scoring game...

A new international year for Ireland kicks off on Wednesday with a friendly visit from Poland that was instigated, in part, by the good relationship between the two sets of supporters during the European Championships.

Giovanni Trapattoni is effectively still trying to restore the confidence that was lost on the pitch during that mission. His team has evolved in the subsequent period and six of tomorrow's starting team did not go to the European Championships. Indeed, John O'Shea and Glenn Whelan are the only two players involved who started a game last summer.

Derby striker Conor Sammon is handed an international debut next to Shane Long, a development which has taken many observers by surprise. Trapattoni feels that Sammon adds a physical presence in addition to some finesse, and hopes his energetic partnership with the West Brom man will give Ireland the chance to press up the park and force the opposition into mistakes.

Under new coach, Waldemar Fornalik, the Poles have taken quite an experimental approach to their friendly games. Remember, leading up to Euro 2012, they had two full years of non-competitive matches but that was all geared towards finding the right squad for the task at hand. In certain areas, Fornalik has taken a more long term approach with six members of his selected travelling party born in the 1990s.

Competitively, they sit third in their World Cup group, a win and two draws from three starts. They impressed in the 1-1 draw with England in October, rebounding from a slow start to finish strongly in a weather interrupted fixture. They are clearly a capable side on their day, but much will depend on their attitude to this encounter. Fornalik concentrated on youth in a training game for fringe players against the Romanian U23 side last week, and must decide whether to give these players a chance on a bigger stage.

While their defence at the Euros was far meaner than Ireland's, they do give teams chances and shipped two to Montenegro at home in September before conceding another three in a friendly against Uruguay. That's encouraging for an increasingly porous Irish outfit.

Stand alone friendly games which are sandwiched in the middle of a busy time in the club season tend to be strange affairs, though, and with both sides intending to use certain players for a limited amount of them then it's unlikely that a free-flowing, high-scoring game will be consequence.

However, it's hard to make a strong case for arguing that Trapattoni's back four are capable of keeping a clean sheet. Ciaran Clark is a promising player but is going through a hard time at Aston Villa, while left full Greg Cunningham is relatively untested. With Millwall goalkeeper David Forde given the nod ahead of Keiren Westwood, it's not a settled Irish rearguard unit.

On the flip side, with Wes Hoolahan likely to figure in the second half and both Jonathan Walters and Kevin Doyle in reserve, Ireland do have decent striking options on top of the set piece prowess of Robert Brady. It makes Both Teams to Score at 2.0 the betting starting point.

But the tentative overall selection is for neither side to score more than once. The 7.2 about a 1-1 in the Correct Score market makes some appeal.

Overall, a few quid on the draw at 3.35 is the way to go. Ireland were too short in some markets earlier this week which would have presented laying potential, but the current trading odds of 2.7 about the hosts and 3.0 about the visitors is fair enough for a February friendly.

For a speculative punt, take a chance on 51-60 minutes @ 11.4 for the First Goal and look for the odds to develop on Doyle and Hoolahan in the Last Goal market. They are certain to be on the pitch at the end of the game; something which cannot be said about any of the starting attacking options.

Recommended Bets

Back The Draw @ 3.35

Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.0

Back 1-1 Correct Score 1-1 @ 7.2

Back First Goal 51-60 Minutes @ 11.4

Back Kevin Doyle/Wes Hoolahan Last Goal