Relegation-haunted Rangers are a value bet at Swansea

8Feb 2013

England - Premier League

QPR have a shot at Premier League salvation under Harry Redknapp and they look like a solid bet to get something from Saturday's trip to Swansea, says Andrew Atherley

Rarely can an opening-day result have been such an accurate reflection of two teams' prospects than Swansea's 5-0 win at QPR on August 18 this season.

Yet Rangers are likely to put up a much better fight in Saturday's rematch. While they haven't managed to clamber off the bottom of the Premier League, they have become a more appealing betting prospect under Harry Redknapp and can prove the point again at the Liberty stadium.

Redknapp has yet to find the winning formula that might lead to a dramatic escape from relegation but from the moment he took charge in late November the Hoops became a more solid unit. His first match was a goalless draw at Sunderland - at a time when a clean sheet and a point seemed almost beyond QPR - and they have been hard to beat ever since.

The west London club have lost only three out of 12 in the league under Redknapp and if the table were redrawn to cover only that period QPR would be 13th. Significantly, in terms of Saturday's match, they have lost only one out of five on the road under Redknapp (make that six if their 1-0 win against West Brom in the FA Cup third round is included).

The home performances have been solid but the problem at Loftus Road is that punters have been on shaky ground as regards win prospects - last weekend's 0-0 at home to Norwich being a case in point. Backing them on the road is a different story because the odds are usually big and QPR's high draw rate can be brought into the equation by laying the home team or using the Asian handicap.

In Saturday's match Swansea are 1.89 to lay and QPR are 2.02 off 0 & +0.5 and 2.76 off scratch on the Asian handicap.

Those bets give up the possibility of a big-priced win by QPR, however, and punters may find it preferable to put most of their stake on Redknapp's side for the win at 4.8 with a saver on the draw at 3.75.

QPR's record under Redknapp gives them a decent shot on Saturday and, of course, there is the possibility of improvement after their heavy spending on reinforcements during the January transfer window.

The £22m outlay by owner Tony Fernandes was a gamble and the odds are still stacked against QPR, who have 17 points from 25 games and probably need to double that total at least in the remaining 13 games.

Since the Premier League was reduced to 38 games, only four out of 18 clubs have survived after having fewer than 20 points at this advanced stage of the season. That's a 78 per cent relegation rate not quite reflected in odds of 1.47 for QPR to be relegated.

One of those escapees was the Redknapp-managed Portsmouth, who had 18 points (only one more than QPR currently) after 25 games of the 2005-06 season and were seven points from safety (QPR have a six-point gap to make up). In the end, Portsmouth survived comfortably on 38 points after winning six and drawing two of their final 13 games.

But Redknapp has not always been able to work his magic. In 2004-05 he had Southampton in an identical position to Portsmouth (18 points from 25 games) and the Saints finished bottom with 32 points. That season, it was Bryan Robson's West Brom who made a miraculous escape - having been bottom with 17 points from 25 games (the position QPR are in now) they scrambled to 34 points to survive by a point.