Relegation fodder to scrap to the death

22Feb 2013

England - Premier League

Armed with a pamphlet of Opta stats, Jaymes Monte picks out his best bets from this weekend's non-televised Premier League fixtures...

Arsenal 1.34 v Aston Villa 11.0; The Draw 5.8

It's difficult to say just which of these two teams will come into the game lower on confidence. Arsenal are now facing the reality of another trophyless season and the realistic possibility of missing out on a top four spot, while Villa remain entrenched in a relegation dog fight.

At least Paul Lambert's side do come into this game on the back of a win after beating West Ham at Villa Park a fortnight ago.

The visitors have also avoided defeat at Arsenal on four of their last six Premier League trips to the Emirates (W2 D2 L2). It would take a brave man to part with his money in order to back a home win at odds as short as 1.34.

Christian Benteke has now scored in five successive appearances for Aston Villa in all competitions (six goals) and is a 4.0 chance to net this Saturday.

Norwich 4.0 v Everton 2.1; The Draw 3.55

Although there is not yet any great cause for concern in the Everton ranks, there must be a slight worry that their form has tapered off since the turn of the year. David Moyes will be hoping that their once customary slow start has not simply been transferred to a latter part of the campaign.

Having scored in 18 consecutive games, Everton have now failed to score in three of their last five league matches. The Toffees have used fewer players than any other Premier League side (22) this season, and maybe that is just starting to tell.

No side has drawn more Premier League games 0-0 this season than Norwich City (5), and that combined with Everton's shortage of goals lately makes the 1.94 about Under 2.5 goals a standout bet.

QPR 7.8 v Man Utd 1.52; The Draw 4.5

Following a hectic schedule of late there's every chance that Sir Alex Ferguson could use this game to further rest a number of his key players. Robin van Persie, Shinji Kagawa and Michael Carrick were all moved to the bench for the FA Cup clash with Reading last Monday, while Wayne Rooney and Patrice Evra didn't even make the squad. It's an important point worth considering before piling into United at appealing odds of 1.52.

However, QPR have taken just two points from 11 Barclays Premier League encounters with Manchester United and their last win against United came way back in 1992 on New Year's Day. Regardless of the XI Ferguson selects, I wouldn't want to be laying the visitors.

What may be worth a play is the 2.28 on there being fewer than 2.5 goals. There have only been 11 instances of a team scoring fewer than 19 goals in their opening 26 Premier League games (as QPR have done), while United weren't too threatening without RVP on the pitch against Reading. If the Dutchman doesn't start then there'll certainly be some mileage in trading that 2.28 in-play.

Reading 2.7 v Wigan 2.94; The Draw 3.5

Relegation battle. Six-pointer. Do-or-die fixture. Choose your own cliché, but whichever way you look at this game... It. Is. Massive.

Although victory for either side may not be enough to even lift them out of the relegation zone, defeat would be little short of a footballing disaster. The draw looks the best bet in the Match Odds market, but there are better bets in relation to this fixture to be had elsewhere.

Wigan have conceded the first goal of the game in more matches than every other PL side this term (17), so 1.9 about Reading scoring first is worth a punt.

Seventy per cent of Wigan's goals this season have come after the break, while a massive 42% of Reading's goals have come in the closing 15 minutes this season. Back the 2nd Half to have the most goals at odds of 2.0.

West Brom 2.1 v Sunderland 4.0; The Draw 3.6

Sunderland have lost two games in a row for the fourth time in the league this season but are yet to lose three on the spin. And should they pick up where they left off against Arsenal a fortnight ago, then they should have no problems avoiding defeat at the Hawthorns.

The Baggies' slightly fortuitous 2-0 win at Anfield two weeks ago was their first triumph in 10 matches in all competitions, while they've not kept successive clean sheets in the Premier League since April 2012.

Each of the last four top-flight matches between West Brom and Sunderland have gone over 3.5 goals, while only one of the last seven games between the Baggies and the Black Cats has gone under 2.5 goals and seven of Sunderland's last eight Premier League away games have gone over 2.5 goals. According to the stats we should be piling into Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08.

Sunday, 1.30pm Kick Off

Newcastle 2.16 v Southampton 3.7; The Draw 3.6

Newcastle have won seven and lost none of their last eight Premier League home games against Southampton and have scored at least once in 11 of their 12 Premier League matches against the Saints at St James'.

However, Southampton have lost only once - against Manchester United at Old Trafford - since Mauricio Pochettino took charge and were mightily impressive 3-1 winners over Man City last time out. The Geordies look way too short at odds of 2.16 and can be taken on.

Recommended Bets:

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94 in Norwich v Everton

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08 in West Brom v Sunderland

Back 2nd Half to have most goals @ 2.0 in Reading v Wigan

Lay Newcastle to win @ 2.16