Real Madrid v Galatasaray: Turks headed for defeat

3Apr 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

If Galatasaray go toe to toe with Real Madrid at the Bernabeu, they'll end up clinging on to their Champions League place by their finger tips, says Tobias Gourlay

Santiago Bernabeu

Wednesday 19:45 (Live on Sky Sports 2)

Real 1.18 Galatasaray 20.0 draw 9.0

Match Odds

Jose Mourinho has won 13/16 European home games as Real Madrid coach. As anyone's boss, he's won 6/6 Champions League quarter-finals.

Fatih Terim's Galatasaray have won 3/4 on the road in Europe this season, but Cluj, Braga and Schalke are not in Real's class. Manchester United might be - and Galatasaray lost 1-0 to them at Old Trafford in September.

The visitors have been blustering about wanting to 'play football' at the Bernabeu. If they are true to the cliche, and start Albert Riera at left-back again, Real should find the space and time to seriously dent their chances of causing an upset over the two legs.

Instead of the 1.19 about a straight home win, consider the longer prices on Real to be ahead at half-time and full-time, and to score in both halves.

The Blancos have struck before half-time in 16/18 Champions League and La Liga games at the Bernabeu this season, while Galatasaray have conceded prior to the break in 3/4 European away matches.

Mourinho's charges have scored before and after the interval in 13/18.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

A brief swoop into history reveals that quarter-final first legs are not as tight on goals as you might imagine: since the 2003/04 format change 19/36 Champions League quarter-final first legs have produced Over 2.5 Goals.

That's probably the way this one will go too, but 1.36 is not a price to get excited about.

Both Teams to Score?

In the last 12 months, backing Both Teams to Score has been the right thing to do in 11/11 Champions League games involving Real.

Worried their defence might be more formidable at the Bernabeu? Both teams have scored in each of Real's last eight Champions League home games.

Galatasaray, who will start with the competition's joint top-scorer Burak Yilmaz upfront, have found the net eight times in four CL away games this season.

Alongside Yilmaz there should be Dider Drogba. He's taken a while to get up to speed after a sojourn in China, but still looks just the player to exploit Real's frailties at set pieces.

After all that, there are layers who think someone will probably keep a clean sheet.

First Goalscorer

Cristiano Ronaldo is the leading man on Wednesday night. You knew that, but did you know he's scored almost half of all Real's goals in 2013 (21/44). 4.0 is a tempting price. All the more so because Higuain and Benzema have just eight goals in 24 appearances this year.

Sergio Ramos is as trigger happy as the Portuguese, and could be a threat in this market. He's aggressive at attacking set pieces and it came out last week that he'd had more strikes at goal than any other Spaniard in World Cup 2014 qualifiers. With six goals in 26 appearances for club and country, 25.0 appeals - and so would 9.0 To Score anytime.

Best Bet

Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.02