Real Madrid can best Betis

24Nov 2012

Primera Division Spanyol

Tobias Gourlay draws out a quartet of odds-against wagers from this weekend's televised games

Malaga v Valencia

Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Malaga 2.16 Valencia 3.75 draw 3.6

Malaga have qualified impressively for the knockout stages of the Champions League. The cost of good results in Europe has been a dip in domestic form: the Anchovies have not won any of the four Liga games that have followed a European outing.

This time Manuel Pellegrini's men are up against a Valencia side that might be even more depleted by Champions League participation.

Mauricio Pellegrino - we've checked, and we've definitely got the managers the right way round - has lost more players to injury and suspension, including hitman Roberto Soldado. The team played with ten players for more than half of Tuesday's game with Bayern Munich and the coach cannot rotate much this weekend.

Pellegrini, however, rested Saviola, Joaquin and Isco in midweek, and that extra sharpness in attack could be the difference.

Medium-term results - Malaga have won 10/13 at home to top-half sides excluding the Big Two; Valencia have lost 8/11 to top-six teams that aren't Real or Barca - also suggest the home side can snap a winless streak of four.

Recommended Bet

Back Malaga @ 2.16

Real Betis v Real Madrid

Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Betis 12.0 Madrid 1.32 draw 6.0

Betis' home games are easy to summarise: if they keep a clean sheet (3/6 this season), they win; if they don't (the other 3/6), they lose.

Against Real Madrid it's hard to see them keeping a clean sheet. Pepe Mel's team were marmalised by Sevilla in last weekend's derby and are short on serious defenders at the moment. Although they are sixth in the table, only three teams have conceded more goals this season.

Both Teams to Score is a good bet at something close to 1.9: Betis have scored in 20 straight at the Benito Villamarin, netting twice each against Real and Barcelona last term.

More of a punt, but Any Unquoted looks a bit long in the Correct Score market. Real have scored four or more in 4/6 (excluding el classic). Gonzalo Higuain is injured, but Karim Benzema is coming into a little bit of form, and then there's that guy who cuts inside from the left-wing quite effectively.

Recommended Bet

Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 3.5

Atletico Madrid v Sevilla

Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Atletico 1.66 Sevilla 5.8 draw 4.2

Atletico are perfect at the Vicente Calderon this season and that's a big part of why Opta are reporting that los Colchoneros have more points (31) than at this stage of any previous season.

Diego Simeone's career home record is W12-D2-L0 against teams that aren't Barcelona or Real Madrid, while Michel's Sevilla have lost three in a row on the road. Last week's 5-1 win at home to city rivals Real Betis was encouraging, but, if we throw the formbook out of the window for derby games, wouldn't it be right that we also defenestrate derby results when weighing up matches against teams from the other side of the country?

Whatever the answer, backing Atletico to be ahead at half-time and full-time in home games has been the right thing to do on 5/6 occasions this season.

Sevilla have fallen behind early in each of their last two road defeats and Radamel Falcao says that's about to become each of their last three.

Recommended Bet

Back Atletico/Atletico @ 2.64

Levante v Barcelona

Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Levante 13.5 Barcelona 1.28 draw 6.4

These two are both soaring to new heights this season. Barcelona have made their best ever start to a league campaign (W11-D1-L0), while Levante are fourth and into the last 32 of the Europa League.

But, as Leo Messi leads Barca into the Felix Baumgartner stratosphere, their hosts are a model aeroplane piloted by a young child on Boxing Day. And it's probably the latter that will crash and burn this weekend.

Levante contained Real Madrid pretty well a couple of weeks ago, but that was in - and after - heavy rain. The weather forecast says conditions will not be so favourable to the Frogs this weekend.

Barcelona, who will be at full strength, have scored at least twice in each of their last 15 road games, while Levante have managed just one clean sheet in six at the Ciutat de Valencia this term.

Levante haven't lost by more than the odd goal in any of their last five at home to the Big Two, but Barcelona's average of 3.83 goals per away game this season says they are overpriced to hit four or more for the fourth time in five such outings.

At the other end, Puyol and Pique are fit, but Levante have found the back of the net in 15/16 home games - four straight against the Big Two - and Both Teams to Score resonates at even-money.

And the Messi thing: he's scored braces or better in 16/27. You could get 2.5 or more this time.