Ravens v 49ers Build-Up: Stats a fact for Super Bowl XLVII

28Jan 2013

Romilly takes a look at the numbers that count for next Sunday's showpiece and some others that don't...

America's storied sportscaster, Vin Scully, once remarked that "statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination." It's a fine yet worthwhile distinction.

So old Vin can't have much enjoyed it when NFL season came round. A myriad range of statistical data is always available to test for match micro-effects, whose combined sum has more bearing on a game's outcome than some ex-quarterback sitting in a studio telling you this one's all about Colin Kaepernick.

Of course, while it's still a game of conflicting opinions, the Super Bowl is the pinnacle of such statistical data. Sorting the wheat from the chaff is the challenge. But there are also some helpful numbers which you can run to lend objectivity to the subjective.

So take a look at the ensuing statistical phenomena, which illuminate some huge departures from mere chance - and plenty of irrelevant ones, too. It's better for me to list them all regardless, since I wouldn't want to join any stats club that would have me as a member.

Key NFL variables for betting markets

The Vegas line makes the Super Bowl a 3-point handicap in favour of the San Francisco 49ers. Three is the biggest of "big numbers" on the sports books, accounting for the precise winning margin in a staggering 14.3% of NFL games.

Seven points is the next trending "big number", proving the deciding gap 7.7% of the time.

65% of all games are determined by one of the following precise margins: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17.

34% of Total Points totals combine for one of the following 10 aggregates: 30, 33, 37, 38, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, 51.

Baltimore Ravens v San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl Team Stats

Neither side has ever lost a Super Bowl (a combined 6-0).

San Francisco are 5-0 in the Vince Lombardi Trophy game. But have not appeared since 1995. One more win will tie them for all-time Super Bowls with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The 49ers pulled off the biggest comeback victory in an NFC championship game, getting out of a 17-point hole in the first-half. The previous biggest recovery was 13 points.

NFC (Niners) teams have won three straight Super Bowls and four of the last five. The NFC currently holds a 54% winning advantage over the AFC (Ravens) since records began.

The Ravens (13 wins, 7 losses) hold the best winning percentage (65%) of any team in play-off history. The 49ers are only a whisker behind, though, with 61% (fourth all-time).

San Francisco allowed 17 points per game in the regular season, ranked second in the league.

Baltimore are only the second team since 1990 to advance to the Super Bowl after losing three of their last four regular-season matches.

The team which scores first in the Super Bowl runs out the winner 64% of the time (29-16).

The team favoured by the layers (the 49ers) prevails in the Superbowl 73% of the time.

Super Bowl Player Stats

After eight touchdown passes and no interceptions, Joe Flacco has the chance break Joe Montana's record for most touchdown passes without throwing pick (11).

Every quarterback who has finished a postseason throwing at least eight touchdowns without a pick has not only won the Super Bowl, but also the Most Valuable Player.

Flacco is the lone QB to have defeated the New England Patriots of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era twice at home in the play-offs.

Colin Kaepernick has started just nine games in his career including the playoffs. That's the third fewest starts by a quarterback prior to starting in the Super Bowl.

Ray Lewis, on his retirement tour, is actually playing like every game is his last, racking up a spectacular 44 tackles in the postseason. He is set to become the leading tackler in the play-offs this century.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh and 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh are the only fraternal head coaches in NFL history. It follows, then, that this "Bro Bowl" is a Super Bowl first.

However, the Harbaughs have met competitively last year when the Ravens beat the 49ers 16-6 in Week 12.

And some other numbers that don't really matter...

103,985 spectators is the record attendance for the Super Bowl. So the New Orleans Superdome, with its comparatively pokey capacity of 72,000, will come up short.

$800: the lowest face-value price of a ticket to the big game.

$3.5 million: average price for one 30-second advert on host broadcaster NBC during the game.

12% of US workers will either take Monday as a sick day or a holiday.

12,500: tweets per second predicted towards the climax of the game, based on last year's Twitter figures.

11 million: number of pizza slices Domino's expect to sell on Sunday. That's an 80% rise in business for the chain.

$10.8 billion: amount spent on beer for the game.