QPR's survival hopes to receive another boost

19Jan 2013

England - Premier League

Using some Opta stats Mike Norman previews Saturday's traditional kick-off games, and our man fancies QPR to maintain their recent good away form at Upton Park...

Liverpool 1.34 v Norwich 11.0; The Draw 5.8

I mentioned a few weeks ago that Norwich were worth a wager in the Relegation market at 22.0, and since then an Opta stat reads that they have taken just one point from a possible 15. They have some really tough fixtures to come and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they got sucked into a relegation battle.

I am surprised then that the Canaries can still be backed at 10.5 for the drop; I anticipate they'll be a fraction of those odds after their next six fixtures.

I thought Liverpool were outstanding at Old Trafford last Sunday, but only when they went 2-0 down! If they can play like that for the most part of this encounter then I see no reason why the Reds won't repeat their previous two outings at Anfield and record a simple victory over out-of-form Norwich.

Man City 1.27 v Fulham 14.0; The Draw 6.8

Rather like the above game, this should result in a straightforward victory, especially given the poor recent form of the away side (just one win in six league games for Fulham).

Only Arsenal, Everton and Manchester United have prevented City from taking maximum points at the Etihad Stadium this season and it's fair to say that Fulham aren't in that class. Since the first few weeks of the season City have won every home game to nil (five in total) against clubs not in the top six and it's very possible that is exactly how this game will go.

One word of caution though, Opta point out that from the last 17 Premier League meetings between these two, Fulham have only failed to score in one of those games. Man City have scored in all of them, meaning Both teams to Score - available to back at 2.04 this time - has paid out in 16 of the last 17 meetings.

Newcastle 1.8 v Reading 5.2; The Draw 4.0

Newcastle aren't exactly setting the world alight this season and it will be no surprise to see the north east club form part of many people's lay bets this weekend, especially given Reading's season-changing (perhaps) comeback win over West Brom last Saturday.

But the Royals have a dreadful record at St James Park. Opta tell us that they have lost all of their last seven visits to Newcastle, and worse still, in the last six of those games they conceded at least three goals each time. Alarming to say the least.

Unfortunately the above stat is about the only reason to back Newcastle in this game, but it's a very strong one and on paper at least, Alan Pardew's men really ought to win this encounter.

Swansea 2.26 v Stoke 3.65; The Draw 3.4

It seems Swansea's recent success has been built on a very well organised defence. The Swans' last two Capital One Cup victories were achieved by not conceding a goal and they've already had two 0-0 draws in the Premier League since Christmas.

And now they meet Stoke, a side that doesn't seem to generate any scoreline that doesn't have a nil in there somewhere. If ever a game was destined to end 0-0 then - available to back at 10.0 - then this is probably it.

There isn't an Opta stat that supports the 0-0 prediction however, as in the last 10 meetings between these two, the winning side has always scored exactly two goals. Let's hope there isn't a winning side this time, but I suggest backing the 0-0 with a view to laying the bet off at some point.

West Ham 2.14 v QPR 3.9; The Draw 3.55

Opta tell us that Rangers have taken more points (five) on the road in their last four away games than they did in the previous 20 (three). In fact it's quite remarkable that QPR are now going for three away wins on the bounce after a run of no away wins in their previous 23 league attempts.

West Ham have won just one of their previous eight games in all competitions and just two at home (in seven attempts) since October. Sam Allardyce's men were soundly beaten at Sunderland last week and they might just feel a little pressure to beat the league's bottom side.

The Hammers' recent form doesn't suggest they are about to win this game however, and I have a hunch that QPR could make a massive statement in their bid for survival with a win at Upton Park.

Wigan 2.14 v Sunderland 3.9; The Draw 3.5

I'm not surprised that Opta point out that Wigan have won just one of their last nine Premier League games, after all, we're only in January and the Latics don't tend to start their fight for survival until around March time.

On a serious note, Roberto Martinez' men have played some good football of late and perhaps haven't got what they've deserved out of some of their games. If they play in a similar fashion against the Black Cats they might just win this game, but if truth be told it's an extremely difficult game to call.

Sunderland's last four victories have all been to nil, and they've conceded just a single goal all season in their six league wins to date. If you fancy Martin O'Neill's side to win then, have a small percentage of your stake on them to win to nil at around 6.0.

Recommended Bets

Back Liverpool Win to Nil @ 2.08 v Norwich

Back Newcastle @ 1.8 to beat Reading

Back-to-lay 0-0 @ 10.0 in Swansea v Stoke

Best Bet:

Back QPR @ 3.9 to beat West Ham