Qatar MotoGP Betting: Lorenzo terrific value to win season opener

6Apr 2013

MotoGP

The first race of a new season always raises a lot of questions. MotoGP man Trent Burton is back to answer them...

Where to begin? Is there something wrong with the Hondas? Is Marc Marquez really this good, this fast? Has the Ducati really improved? Has there ever been a more consistent rider than Jorge Lorenzo? We'll get all the answers for certain come Sunday night but for now, let's take a stab.

Since Thursday the Hondas look like they've been struggling a little in Doha. Championship favourite Dani Pedrosa has never really looked comfortable and has complained of corner entry problems all weekend. He has steadily improved but it's a bit of a surprise to see him at 5.0 in the Qatar MotoGP Winner market at round one.

This year's Hondas look the sort of bike that's going to take a few rounds to get right. The Yamaha on the other hand looks a better bike straight out of the box but the Honda, once tuned, should be the better package overall. So Pedrosa must view the first few rounds as damage limitation. Nab some podiums and then attack come May. This is less of an issue for the rookie Marquez. He doesn't know what to expect so he's simply riding the wheels off the thing.

Marquez has been quickest through all of practice so far. Yes, it's only one lap, but still that's incredibly impressive. Not since practice records have been kept has a rookie topped the sheets after just two sessions. He's 4.9 for a first up win, something that's not been done since Max Biaggi back in the 500cc era, but I just can't see it happening.

The one thing Marquez doesn't have experience of yet is full race distance. The fitness and pressure of a full race and, most importantly, tyre management are things he's yet to combat. It's not beyond him but I'd be much more tempted by a 1.75 punt for a debut Podium Finish. An achievement that by his standards might be seen as disappointing but rest assured, it'll be nothing short of genius.

To the Ducatis. It's hardly a secret that Valentino Rossi had the most miserable two years of his life trying to tame the Ducati to no avail. The Italian manufacturer's last win came back in 2010 with Casey Stoner on board but as we now know with hindsight, Stoner could've won races on a pizza delivery bike. But in 2013 things are already looking up a little.

New boy Andrea Dovizioso is quicker than expected and in a huge moral boost for the team, just one thousandth of a second behind Rossi on the Yamaha. Make no mistake they've still got a long road ahead of them but already it seems Dovi is better placed in his first race than Rossi was for most of his stint in red. First blood should go to Valentino in the race though. All the Yamahas are working well here and the 1.6 on offer for a return to the podium seems a fair price.

And then there's Lorenzo. His sheer number of quick laps makes everyone else look like they're not even trying. His consistency straight off the bat this weekend has been remarkable. But then, when it comes to Jorge, that shouldn't surprise anyone. He's dialed in from the get go and as Marquez, Pedrosa, Rossi, Cal Crutchlow and co dispute the podium I expect Lorenzo, the deserved favourite at 2.58, to clear off. Dare I suggest, even at the first race, that price is too big.

The bikes always look incredible under lights, more so this year with Lorenzo and his light up helmet, so whatever happens it's going to look sensational. I imagine it'll look even better if you're a Lorenzo fan.

Recommended Bet

Back Jorge Lorenzo to win @ 2.58