Put your faith in Raith at Dunfermline

2Jan 2013

Dunfermline host Raith in the Scottish First Division this afternoon and while the Betfair market has them at odds-on, Paul Robinson thinks the value lies in opposing the home team.

Dunfermline are third in their quest to go straight back up to the SPL after suffering relegation last year. They were doing much better but since the end of November they've picked up just one point from a possible 12. Defeats at Livingston and Greenock Morton sandwiched a home loss to Falkirk and a draw with Hamilton.

Jim Jefferies' side have been solid if not spectacular at home this term. The Pars have played eight, won four, drawn two and lost two, giving them a win rate of 50%. They had been free scoring at East End Park, but the goals have dried up in the last two, netting just once and conceding in both games.

Raith are sixth in the table with 22 points from their 16 fixtures, which means they are eight behind today's opponents, but with a game in hand. Since a loss to Greenock Morton back in September, Grant Murray's men have lost just two of their next 10 in the league, and while they may have only won two themselves, we only need them to avoid defeat this afternoon.

Away from Stark's Park, The Rovers have lost three of seven this term and they've kept two clean sheets in their last three. Last time out they went down to a narrow 3-2 defeat to second placed, Partick Thistle, and it took a late Steven Craig goal to beat them.

Dunfermline are in a real bad run of form at present and Raith are a very difficult side to win against. The current price of the home side at around the 1.78 mark is just far too short and I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet

Lay Dunfermline v Raith @ 1.78