PSG remain unstoppable in title race

9Nov 2012

French football expert James Eastham analyses how the rest of the season might pan out, and picks out the best bet across this weekend's matches.

Ligue 1 Analysis

Eleven games into the Ligue 1 season we've seen nothing to suggest PSG, our pre-season tip, were anything but the best bet to win the title. Their 1.36 ante-post price might have put people off for being too short, but they're trading at 1.25 at the moment and unlikely to be much bigger than that in the coming weeks and months.

What's ominous for their rivals is that PSG - who face last season's champions Montpellier on Sunday night (20:00 GMT) - have moved to the top of the table without playing particularly well. Once they find their rhythm, it's hard to see how anyone can stop them.

For those interested in the Top 2 Finish, Top 3 Finish and Winner W/O Paris St-G markets, Lyon and Lille are the best bets. Lyon's outstanding mix of youth and experience is starting to gel really nicely, with Remi Garde exactly the right man to lead them. Lille have made a poorer than expected start but should do much better in the second-half of the season, especially as they're likely to be out of Europe so can focus on domestic matters.

Marseille were the early pace-setters but will struggle to stay on track, especially if their Europa League campaign continues into 2013. They have a strong ideal XI but less depth and quality than Lyon, and that could count against them. Their primary objective for the season in a top-three finish; they'll go close but could just miss out in the end.

St Etienne are a good bet for a top-five finish - in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang they have one of the division's outstanding strikers and he's ably supported by some other excellent attackers. This is where Bordeaux suffer in comparison - fifth last season, they are solid and well-organised but lack a cutting edge in attack. It's hard to see how a team with so few reliable goalscorers can claim a top-five finish for a second year running.

PSG, Lille, Lyon, Marseille and St Etienne are my bets to finish in the top five.

On to this weekend's tip:

Marseille v Nice (2nd v 15th) Sun, 13:00 GMT

Marseille are the one side on this weekend's Ligue 1 coupon that are too short. Yes, they're second in the table, with 22pts to Nice's 12, but take a closer look and the gap between these two sides is smaller than you'd think.

Marseille begun the season with six straight wins, which means they've taken just four points from their last four matches. They'll also be tired following a draining Europa League 2-2 draw against Borussia Monchengladbach on Thursday night. Marseille have a small squad, limiting rotation. Ten of the likely starting 11 for this game played on Thursday night.

Nice are much better than their league position suggests. Individual defensive errors have cost them points, but the fluent attacking style coach Claude Puel has put in place will reap dividends long-term. Ten days ago they beat Lyon 3-1 in the League Cup, and then saw off Nancy 2-1 in the league last weekend. Things are coming together.

That's why a lay of Marseille at 1.53 is the smart selection. If you prefer backing sides to win, Nice are tempting at 8.4.

Best Bet

Lay Marseille at home to Nice @ 1.53