Premier League Top Four Betting: Back Arsenal to overhaul Spurs

28Mar 2013

England - Premier League

Using stats provided exclusively to Betfair by Opta, Luke Moore casts his eye over the candidates to clinch that all-important last Champions League place...

Chelsea

Points: 55

Current position: 3rd

Games Remaining: 9

Odds to finish in the Top Four: 1.18

In pole position to secure a Top Four place in this year's Premier League out of the teams listed, Chelsea under Rafa Benitez look to have put their on-pitch problems behind them. A loss to Man City is the only blip in their last four games, the other three producing decent wins, and with games to come against Sunderland, Southampton, Fulham and Villa, you'd have to fancy the Blues to pick up enough points to grab that Top Four spot back after last season's aberration. Benitez's men currently sit third on 55 points, and the average points total for a fourth place position in the 20 team Premier League era is 68. 13 points from nine games should not be beyond them, and it'll be a huge surprise to see them drop down at this stage.

Tottenham Hotspur

Points: 54

Current position: 4th

Games Remaining: 8

Odds to finish in the Top Four: 2.18

Spurs can consider themselves very unlucky to have not been competing in the Champions League this season. They did what was asked of them and finished in the Top Four, but Chelsea winning in Munich meant they had to settle for a Europa League berth. Having looked in good shape for most of this season, they now face arguably the biggest test of the year in trying to hang on in the face of considerable pressure from north London rivals Arsenal. With sparse attacking options and a difficult end of March/April, Spurs must buck the trend of slow finishes to Premier League seasons. Over the course of the league's 20 team lifespan, in April and May they sit just 11th and 10th respectively in the form table. A repeat of that inconsistent form won't be enough to keep the Gunners from overtaking them, and AVB's side also have Europa League exertions to contend with.

A positive can be drawn from Spurs' May fixture list however: A trip to Stoke is bookended by home games against Sunderland and Southampton.

Arsenal

Points: 50

Current position: 5th

Games Remaining: 9

Odds to finish in the Top Four: 1.78

If you subscribe the tabloid press narrative around Arsenal this year, you'd be forgiven for thinking their season has been a disaster. In actual fact, they're in reasonable shape going into the final stretch; second in the form table behind only Manchester United and four points behind Spurs in fourth with a game in hand, Arsenal also have a tradition of finishing the season strongly. On average, in April Arsenal pick up around 1.91 points per game, which is second only to all-conquering Manchester United. What's more, eight of their last nine games are eminently winnable and the only really tricky tie comes at the end of April in the shape of a home game against Ferguson's men who will have the title sewn up by then.

All that aside though, Arsenal have looked brittle when the pressure has been on this season and they may not quite have the nerve to survive a nail-biting final run. Although momentum is key, it remains to be seen whether this particular Arsenal side has the mettle to cope.

Everton

Points: 48

Current position: 6th

Games Remaining: 9

Odds to finish in the Top Four: 11.0

Rank outsiders for a Top Four finish now after a tremendous start to the season, the feeling around Goodison Park now is now one of what could have been. Moyes and his charges gave themselves more of a chance with a fine win against Man City last week, but a loss to Norwich and three draws against Villa, Southampton and Swansea were really damaging for the Toffees. Despite having a reputation for being strong finishers, Everton's record in May is actually pretty poor - just 1.26 points per game is not Champions League form, and away games against Liverpool and Chelsea in the last month of the season this term mean they're very unlucky to climb the two positions they need.