Premier League Relegation Betting: Wigan are not out of the woods yet

 

Shaun Maloney's injury time free kick rescued a point for Roberto Martinez at Loftus Road - but Ralph Ellis still wonders if this will be the year when Wigan's survival luck finally runs out...

 

It's always there in the small print of financial adverts: "Past performance may not be a reliable indicator of future success."

 

You'll find it in eight point type, somewhere underneath the screaming 96 point headline that tells you the investment fund in question earned 20% the year before.

 

Nobody takes a lot of notice of that official warning when they are deciding where to put their savings, and let's face it we do the exact opposite when we're picking a bet too. We study form, we watch performances, we analyse players, we look at statistics of previous meetings. We base our decisions almost entirely on past performance.

 

That must be why Wigan are as long as 2.96 this morning to be relegated. They are back in the bottom three, Roberto Martinez is facing as tricky a run-in as the Latics have ever had - yet the verdict of the market seems to be that "they always find some results to get out of trouble when it matters".

 

Shaun Maloney's last minute free kick that salvaged a point at QPR yesterday was just the latest example of Wigan taking something from a game when they didn't deserve it. In recent weeks they've beaten Newcastle and Norwich with late goals. You could take that as a sign of a team that are surviving - but it might just turn out the opposite. Because if Wigan have had their good run, and are still in the bottom three, what if they start to slide?

 

Yesterday's game at Loftus Road couldn't have been set up better for them. Bobby Zamora's red card after 20 minutes gave them a man advantage, perfect for a Martinez team who pride themselves in their passing. But they hardly ever looked like cashing in and in fact it was Rangers who looked like the side with the extra man for most of the second half.

 

Wigan actually had nearly 75% of the possession in the second half, but a James McArthur header late on was the only time they really troubled QPR keeper Julio Cesar. And the goal that rescued a point was a gift, with Stephane Mbia making a daft challenge to concede the free kick and then Adel Taarabt ducked out of the way.

 

Martinez actually blamed the sending off. He said his team couldn't handle the pressure of being expected to win. That doesn't augur too well then for next Saturday's FA Cup semi-final at Wembley against struggling Championship side Millwall when they are 1.8 favourites. It also puts question marks over their ability to handle the key games of their own run-in, right up to the last day when they face fellow strugglers Aston Villa.

 

The FA Cup run adds another twist. Losing to Millwall would be massive disappointment; winning would leave players with one eye on not getting injured before their big chance of a trophy. Win or lose they have a congested fixture list to deal with - potentially nine high pressure games in five weeks.

 

Wigan's remaining fixture list in the Premier League starts at Manchester City in a fortnight, and includes trips to West Ham, West Brom and Arsenal. Good luck with getting more than a point from them. That leaves home games with Spurs, Swansea and Villa as the key to survival and if they can't handle being expected to get results it doesn't augur well for those either.

 

Past performance says Wigan always find a way out of it. This might just be the year when past performance is not a reliable indicator - and that makes 2.96 a price worth grabbing while you can.

 

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