Potters to give Benitez more food for thought

Jaymes Monte has sifted through the Opta statistics for this weekend's on-televised Premier League matches and picked out his best bets...

 

Aston Villa 2.6 v Southampton 2.9; The Draw 3.5

 

A real relegation six-pointer to kick-off this week's Opta stats analysis as an Aston Villa side who have won only five of their last 37 Premier League games take on a Southampton side that have lost just two of their last 10 but are only above the relegation zone by virtue of goal difference.

 

As well as that atrocious win record Villa have also failed to score in six of their last 10 league matches, while their points haul of 19 is their lowest ever in the Premier League after 21 matches. Confidence will also be dented by the midweek loss at League Two Bradford.

 

Villa are unbackable as favourites at odds of 2.6, but you wouldn't want to put too much faith in Southampton either at odds of 2.9. A lay of the home side is an option, while a back of the draw at 3.5 also makes sense.

 

Rickie Lambert has scored in three of Southampton's last four Premier League away games and can be backed at odds of 3.0 to net this weekend.

 

 

Everton 1.64 v Swansea 6.8; The Draw 4.3

 

Both sides have conceded the joint-higher proportion of headed goals of any team in the Premier League this season (35% each), suggesting that good headers of the ball such as Michu 3.6, Nikica Jelavic 2.4, Phil Jagielka 10.0 and Marouanne Fellaini 2.5 are worth an interest in the To Score market.

 

Everton have come from behind to claim 20 points in the Premier League this season, only Man Utd (24) have more. The Toffees can be backed at odds of 9.0 to come from behind and win this weekend.

 

The tendency to concede goals but still take something from the game suggests that we should also be backing Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.8. The Opta statistic that states Everton are the first team in Premier League history to both score and concede in 16 consecutive games backs up this theory.

 

 

Fulham 2.1 v Wigan 4.1; The Draw 3.6

 

Fulham are looking to reverse their poor run of form at Craven Cottage by maintaining their impressive run of results against Wigan. The Cottagers have won six, drawn six and lost none of their last 12 Premier League meetings with the Latics.

 

Wigan, meanwhile, have scored just nine goals in 15 Premier League meetings with Fulham and never more than once in any of those matches.

 

Backing Fulham at odds of 2.1 is not advisable given their current run of form, but neither can we oppose them given their record against Wigan. Instead lets use the Latics' poor scoring record in this fixture to back Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.2 with some confidence.

 

 

Norwich 2.26 v Newcastle 3.5; The Draw 3.6

 

Newcastle's miserable season continued with defeat to Brighton in the FA Cup last weekend, and they go into this match-up with former manager Chris Hughton five points worse off than the Canaries and just two points above the relegation zone.

 

20 points after 21 matches is Newcastle's lowest ever points haul in the Premier League era. While Norwich have now lost their last four following an unbeaten run of 10 Premier League matches. Neither side comes into this game brimming with confidence but home advantage does mean that the hosts are justifiable favourites at odds of 2.26.

 

Interestingly Norwich have scored the highest percentage of goals from headers of any team in the top flight (38%) this season, while Newcastle have conceded more headed goals than any other team in the Premier League (11).

 

 

Reading 3.0 v West Brom 2.54; The Draw 3.5

 

Reading seek only their third win of the season when they host a West Brom side that could move back up to fifth with a win, depending on results elsewhere this weekend.

 

The Royals have won one and lost eight of their last 10 Premier League matches, while West Brom have lost five and won just two of their last eight Premier League games. Perhaps the draw at odds of 3.5 is the best bet here given neither side is in particularly good form.

 

 

Stoke 4.3 v Chelsea 2.0; The Draw 3.5

 

Chelsea have won seven and lost none of the nine Premier League meetings with the Potters and had two FA Cup wins since Stoke last tasted victory over the Blues in the League Cup in October 1995. Yet Stoke's unbeaten home record (W5, D5) and Chelsea's disconcerting run of two defeats in their last three means that we can oppose the European Champions.

 

The last four Premier League games between Chelsea and Stoke have seen just four goals scored in total, while Stoke have managed fewer shots on target this season than any other team in the Premier League (64). So a low scoring clash can be expected and Under 2.5 goals is available to back at 1.8.

 

 

Sunderland 2.4 v West Ham 3.3; The Draw 3.4

 

West Ham have won just two of their last 15 Premier League away matches (W2 D4 L9) but Sunderland have won just three of their last 14 Premier League games at the Stadium of Light (W3 D6 L5), which suggests that this is another match where we couldn't confidently back either side.

 

Kevin Nolan has scored more goals against Sunderland than he has managed against any other opponent in his Premier League career (6), and is a 3.8 chance to score this weekend.

 

Sunderland have seen the joint-most opposition players sent off this season (four along with Manchester United), it is a 8.0 chance that there is a red card shown in this match.

 

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.8 in Everton v Swansea

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.2 in Fulham v Wigan

Lay Chelsea to beat Stoke @ 2.0

 

Bet HERE

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