Potters to frustrate Citizens

1Jan 2013

Premier League

The first Opta stats of 2013 are in and Jaymes Monte has picked out his best bets for the non-televised games...

Man City 1.33 v Stoke 12.5; The Draw 5.8

Stoke hung on to their unbeaten home record with a late equaliser on Saturday, but seek only their second away win of the season when they go to the Etihad this New Year's Day.

Regardless of where they play The Potters' defence is tight. They've conceded only 17 goals this season, the same number as Real Madrid, and just 10 in as many Premier League away games. This won't be as straightforward for Manchester City as the 1.33 match odds suggest.

Four of the last six Premier League meetings between City and Stoke have finished 1-1, including the last two. I like the look of the draw at odds of 5.8, and a repeat 1-1 scoreline is 12.0.

Swansea 1.63 v Aston Villa 6.4; The Draw 4.3

Aston Villa will be hoping that the start of the New Year brings the beginning of new fortunes, having ended 2012 by conceding 15 and scoring none in their last three matches.

The omens don't look great for the visitors having failed to win any of their three top-flight away fixtures against the Swans, while Swansea go into the match having lost only two of their last eleven league games.

Villa have scored just seven second half goals, fewer than any other side, while only Tottenham have scored a higher proportion of second half goals than Swansea (69%). Which makes the 4.8 about Draw/Swansea in the HT/FT market my best bet here.

Tottenham 1.37 v Reading 11.0; The Draw 5.4

This is one of only five fixtures in Premier League history to see 10+ goals when Tottenham beat Reading 6-4 in December 2007, and the way that the Royals have defended on occasion this season, it would be no surprise to see another goal glut at White Hart Lane this Tuesday.

Reading are the only team to score four goals and lose twice in the Premier League, while they have allowed more shots on goal (114) than any other team this season.

Andre Villas-Boas's men will, however, be without Gareth Bale after he collected his fifth yellow card of the season for simulation and incurs a one-game ban. Spurs have averaged only a point a game in the games Bale has missed this season, compared to 1.94 when he has played.

Maybe the 1.37 about a home win is to be avoided. Instead, Over 3.5 goals can be backed at odds of 2.7.

West Ham 2.16 v Norwich 3.8; The Draw 3.55

Following a run of 10 games without defeat, Norwich have now only won one of their last five. Although there can be no shame in recent narrow defeats to Chelsea and Manchester City, in contrasting circumstances.

West Ham, meanwhile, have won only one of their last eight while James Collins and Kevin Nolan miss the game due to suspension leaving Sam Allardyce with limited options.

The Hammers look way too short at odds of 2.16 and considering that four of the five Premier League meetings between West Ham and Norwich have ended as draws, two of them 0-0, it makes sense to lay the hosts.

Wigan 6.6 v Man Utd 1.6; The Draw 4.3

Wigan have lost 14 of their 15 Premier League meetings with Manchester United but did win this fixture 1-0 last season, and come into this game on the back of a morale-boosting 3-0 win at Villa Park.

Given United's incredible scoring record this season (50 goals in 20 games), you'd imagine that The Latics will need to fire if they are to take anything from the game.

Arouna Koné has scored in his last two Premier League appearances, while Robin van Persie has scored 62 goals in his last 75 Premier League appearances since January 2011.

The Wigan forward is a 4.3 chance to score anytime, RVP is 1.8 in the same market and it is a 2.54 shot that there are more than 3.5 goals scored in the game.

Suggested Bets

Back The Draw @ 5.8 in Man City v Stoke

Back Draw/Swansea @ 4.8

Lay West Ham to win @ 2.16