Past champions point route to the Final

15Mar 2013

WTA új

It's Semi-Finals time at Indian Wells, the guys at Abelson take a closer look...

As expected Maria Sharapova advanced to the Semi-Finals where she faces fellow Russian Maria Kirilenko. Once again Russian number two Kirilenko proved critics and bookmakers wrong by overturning Czech number one Petra Kvitova in three sets. Kvitova practically had the match sown up before going off the boil (as she has done many times in the past) and handing a lifeline to Kirilenko who took it with open arms, dug deep, and forced her way into her first ever Masters Semi-Final.

Although a very fine doubles player, Maria Kirilenko has elected to forego the doubles event at Indian Wells to concentrate solely on her Singles play and that decision appears to be paying off. She's already proven herself as a junior (taking out the 2002 jr. US Open) but while her success at senior level has taken longer than expected, but she's up there now, and at world no.13 (projected when the rankings are updated on Monday) she is one spot off her highest ever ranking and within touching distance of the Top 10. When interviewed yesterday she made reference to her desire to work harder and make 2013 a year that she can finally call herself an elite player. It's just a shame that she has to come up against old enemy Sharapova once again.

There is no doubt that Kirilenko has improved dramatically over the last two years. She's always been a tough opponent with a steely glare and resilience to back it up. Yet for all we can say about the petite Russian, there is no getting away from the simple truth that Maria Sharapova is just a better player. If we look at some of the numbers from Indian Wells, we see that Kirilenko has spent four hours longer on court (612 minutes to Sharapova's 361), has dropped a set in every one of her matches so far (Sharapova has yet to drop a set), has been broken a total of 13 times (Sharapova 6 times), and with a 1st Serve win percentage in the mid-60s (Sharapova averaging in the high 70s), here we have four reasons not to like Kirilenko in this match-up.

Furthermore, three of Sharapova's four victories over Kirilenko have come in the United States, most notably at this very tournament one year ago. Kirilenko is not without hope, and she is clearly playing with a lot of confidence, but on this occasion I'm not going to argue against the stats. I think Sharapova will win tonight and do so comfortably.

In the all-Russian Semi-Final we have a former World number one and multiple Grand Slam champion against a player very much on the rise; the second Semi-Final presents itself in a very similar vein. Caroline Wozniacki, a former world number one and Grand Slam finalist, faces Angelique Kerber who shot into the Top 10 last year after being outside the Top 100 in 2011.

Champion in 2011 and finalist here in 2010, this is not new territory for the Dane. Not so for Kerber who has yet to make the Final of any Masters event. Outside of her SF appearance at the 2011 US Open, and a SF appearance at the 2012 Wimbledon Championships, one could argue that this is the biggest match of her career to date. This will be a great match to watch live. Similar in style, you won't see many net points tonight as both players love to crack the ball from the baseline.

While Wozniacki prefers to build the point a little longer, Kerber will look for the first opportunity to hit a winner and go for it. Kerber has a heavier weight of shot, deeper degree of approach and a faster pace on her ground-strokes. Their last match in Beijing at the end of the 2012 season was a epic affair with countless baseline rallies. Kerber got up in three on that occasion, but I think Wozniacki will turn the tables on her tonight. There is a lot to like about Kerber, but I believe that Wozniacki has got over her crushing and almost inexcusable loss to relative no-name Qiang Wang, and her service stats this week have been impressive.

With her experience at the top level, and her past record at this tournament, I am not going to side against Wozniacki. Though already highlighting Kerber's superiority in her ground-strokes, I don't think she can win tonight. Wozniacki is too solid, and for me it's asking a lot for Kerber to maintain such a high level for so long when her somewhat streaky play offers so little margin for error. The early money has come for Wozniacki and I will be following it in tonight.

In conclusion, with Kirilenko having never made a Master's Semi-Final, and Kerber never having made a Master's Final, I think this will be one match too far for both of them considering they are both playing former Indian Wells champions. Tonight is one for the favourite backers.

Recommended bets:

Caroline Wozniacki to beat Angelique Kerber @ 1.86

Maria Sharapova -4.5 Games vs Maria Kirilenko @ 1.74