Oppose inconsistent Wigan when Newcastle visit

 

Andrew Atherley has crunched the numbers ahead of this weekend's Premier League fixtures and he believes that the 'enigma' that is Wigan must be opposed when Newcastle visit on Sunday...

 

Wigan are probably the biggest enigma in the Premier League and now the question is whether they can transfer their FA Cup form to the battle for survival.

 

Last week's cup win at Everton was impressive, but it is the only sign in the past four months that Wigan are capable of beating even a half-decent Premier League team and on overall form they are crying out to be opposed when Newcastle visit the DW on Sunday.

 

Everton are the only top-flight team that Wigan have beaten in their cup run and in the Premier League only fellow strugglers Reading and Aston Villa have lost to Wigan in the last 18 games. Wigan have lost 11 of those 18 games since a 1-0 win at Tottenham on November 3.

 

The victory at Tottenham is one of just two for Wigan this season against a team outside the bottom five (the other was a 2-1 home win over West Ham the week before the Tottenham win). Wigan's record against teams outside the bottom five is two wins, four draws and 16 defeats (a loss rate of 73%).

 

Newcastle are only just outside the bottom five, but even against the teams from 11th to 15th Wigan's record is one win (against West Ham), two draws and four defeats, which is still a loss rate of 57%. They lost 3-0 in the away match at Newcastle.

 

At home Wigan have won just two out of 14 (against West Ham and Reading). They trailed twice against Reading before snatching a stoppage-time goal for a 3-2 win - admirable in its way, but it was against Reading - and since then they have drawn two and lost five at home in the league.

 

Wigan have been in this situation before and suddenly come good. Roberto Martinez has conjured tremendous end-of-season runs from his team in the past two years, with Wigan twice dragging themselves off the bottom at this stage of the season and climbing to safety, but a third miracle might be asking too much. They are 1.91 to be relegated, which looks the best value in that market.

 

Along with the question of whether Wigan can repeat their escapes of previous years, there are other imponderables with Sunday's match. One is Newcastle's motivation after their Europa League match against Anzhi Makhachkala, with Alan Pardew clearly signalling that he is not worried by the Premier League .

 

Pardew could rotate his side on Sunday and Newcastle's record three days after Europa League matches is mixed - four wins and three defeats out of eight.

 

Another question mark is Newcastle's poor away record (only one win out of 14), which is the major form factor against them. Their overall form has been improving, however, and they have won five of their last seven against teams in the bottom half of the table.

 

On most of the form Wigan are a lay at 2.46 and Newcastle are worth backing at 3.25.

 

Liverpool may look short at 1.86 for Saturday's visit to Southampton but most of their form justifies the odds.

 

The 3-2 win over Tottenham finally laid the hoodoo against top-eight sides and indicates they are set for a strong run-in, but Liverpool have been strong all season against the rest of the division. They have won 11 out of 17 against teams outside the top eight, including four out of six away to bottom-half sides.

 

It is also notable that five of those six away to bottom-half sides have had over 2.5 goals, which is available at 1.75. Both the Liverpool win and Over 2.5 Goals look worth backing.

 

Recommended Bets

Back Liverpool to beat Southampton @ 1.86

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Southampton v Liverpool @ 1.75

Back Newcastle to beat Wigan @ 3.25

 

Bet HERE

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