Open 13 Betting: Tsonga and Llodra look value at home in Marseille

19Feb 2013

ATP Új

Fresh from tipping a tournament winner last week tennis expert Sean Calvert is back with his betting strategy for the Open 13, where he fancies two French stars...

Last week's advice of backing Juan Martin Del Potro at around 5.9 to win in Rotterdam proved to be sound, as the big Argentine marched to the title in style.

So, it's with boosted betting balances that we approach week eight of the 2013 ATP World Tour, which offers another three events in which to try and make some more money.

The tournament directors of Marseille's Open 13 must be delighted at what looks a very strong field indeed for an ATP 250 event, with six players from the top-15 in the world taking part (at the time of writing).

Compare that with the ATP 500 event in Memphis that has just Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic from the top-15 and it could certainly be argued that the ATP 250 Copa Claro in Argentina has a more exciting looking field too, with David Ferrer, David Nalbandian, Nico Almagro and Stan Wawrinka in the draw.

So, I'm focusing on the competitive event in Marseille this week and once again there is a lopsided draw here, with Tomas Berdych, Janko Tipsarevic, Gael Monfils, Richard Gasquet, Jerzy Janowicz, Ernests Gulbis, Jarkko Nieminen, Julien Benneteau and Marcel Granollers all in the top half.

The bottom half looks the place to be and I like the chances of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga this week at around 5.9 in what appears a far more straightforward half and the Frenchman has a good record here of 11-4 with one title to his name (in 2009).

He was beaten in the semi-finals last year by Del Potro in a decider and there could be a repeat of that match again this time at the same stage if the seedings work out.

Delpo is coming here fresh from that Rotterdam victory and he'll be an obvious threat having won back-to-back titles on three previous occasions on the tour.

Tsonga will be the fresher of the two players having lost in the first round in Rotterdam and he should be keen to produce a better performance here on home soil this week. His fitness has improved under new coach Roger Rasheed and in a good quarter he'll be disappointed with anything less than a last four spot at least.

The quarter that Tsonga is in contains the mercurial Bernard Tomic, who lost first up last week to Grigor Dimitrov and is impossible to fancy at around 28.0 with such a poor record indoors.

Martin Klizan, who retired in the Rotterdam last eight and Benoit Paire who pulled out in the first round at Rotterdam are also in there, along with Nikolay Davydenko, who is still capable but very hard to win with.

Del Potro's section looks very winnable too if he's in the mood this week, with Gilles Simon and Michael Llodra the main threats to the Argentine. Simon made the last four in Rotterdam last week and interestingly Llodra withdrew from Rotterdam, which suggests to me that he fancied a few days off before an assault on the Marseille title that he won here in 2010.

Llodra also made the final here last year and we could be seeing a repeat of that final against Del Potro as early as the second round this week if the Frenchman beats David Goffin in the first round.

Llodra won their most recent match in Bercy at the end of last season and will take advantage if Del Potro is slightly jaded after last week's efforts, as he knows this indoor swing is his only realistic chance of success on the tour these days. This tournament in particular holds great memories for Llodra having reached the final in three of his last four appearances in Marseille.

The top half of the draw looks very tough to call, but slight preference for me would be with Gasquet at around 16.0. He looked like he needed a few days off last week and in a section with Tipsarevic I can see him making at least the semis.

Recommended Bets

Back Tsonga at 5.9

Back to lay Llodra at