Non-League Previews: Patient Grimsby have the game to overturn first leg deficit

27Apr 2013

Betfair

Alan Alger looks at Sunday's Blue Square Bet Premier playoff semi-final second leg fixtures and he's backing league runners-up Kidderminster to make up for a poor midweek showing by seeing off Wrexham while Grimsby can bounce back against Newport...

Kidderminster Harriers v Wrexham

BSBP Play-Off Semi-Final 2nd leg, Sunday April 28, KO 13:30

Live On Premier Sports

Wrexham hold a 2-1 advantage from the first leg at The Racecourse Ground in midweek. It's fair to say that Kidderminster were poor on the night and the Welsh side deserved their one goal advantage at the final whistle.

It's only half-time in the tie though and I don't think Steve Burr's side can be as bad again. That may sound harsh, but their passing was off track on the night and we didn't see any of the fluid football that propelled them to an incredible 25 wins in their last 29 regular season matches. They did have spells in the second half in which they were clearly on top, but overall they didn't do enough to bring Wrexham back to Aggborough on at least level terms.

Wrexham boss Andy Morrell will feel that an end of season dip in form was justified to restore his 'starting XI' to something near his first choice as the playoffs got underway. Their usual battling midfield display broke up Kidderminster's normal game. The Red Dragons will have exerted a lot of energy in that midweek effort and it could be argued that Kidderminster's younger legs might recover a bit quicker for Sunday.

A note of caution should be given with Kidderminster's home record against their fellow top ten in the division. Nine matches have produced just four wins, although one of those was a 2-0 success against Wrexham at the end of last year. The first leg was the first time in 11 games that Kidderminster had scored less than two goals in a fixture. I expect them to get that stat back on track here and go through to the Wembley final. Wrexham's away record against the better sides in the Blue Square Bet Premier reads as two away wins against their fellow top 12 teams. They failed to score in seven of those games and I expect them to also draw a blank here.

Recommended Bet

Back Kidderminster Harriers at 1.8

Newport County v Grimsby Town

BSBP Play-Off Semi-Final 2nd leg, Sunday April 28, KO 16:30

Live On Premier Sports

Newport County boss Justin Edinburgh was sensible to suggest that his side have only done half the job with their 1-0 success at Blundell Park in the first leg. A late own-goal from Ian Miller means that County kick-off at their Rodney Parade home a goal to the good on Sunday.

In the ten previous years of these Conference playoffs a one-goal away lead has been achieved twice in 20 semi-final first legs. BOTH times the deficit was overturned by the away side in the second game for them to progress to the final.

It's not likely to be as straightforward as that simple stat for Grimsby to get back in this tie. Nine of the previous 20 semi-finals required extra-time or a penalty shoot-out to separate the sides. Watching the low-scoring first leg it was obvious that a mistake or freak own goal was probably going to settle it and there were very few clear-cut opportunities in the 90 minutes.

The dilemma on whether to stick or twist could catch Newport in two minds and that may play into Grimsby's hands. A large number of their games in the regular season were achieved without conceding a goal and they have the patience to get back into this tie. Newport have failed to score in nearly a quarter of their home matches and have thrown in the odd abysmal performance in front of their own fans. A 5-0 defeat against Forest Green Rovers was the low point of a bad run in the middle of the campaign.

Grimsby's away games are usually low-scoring affairs, with just 2.04 goals per game in their 23 regular season matches on the road. They are unbeaten in their last six away matches and they can sneak this game by a 1-0 scoreline to send us into extra-time.

Recommended Bet

Back Grimsby Town at 3.1 (Best Bet)