Non-League Previews: Mariners sailing towards a playoff repeat against County

20Apr 2013

Betfair

Alan Alger is backing Grimsby Town to beat Newport County and set up a playoff semi-final between the two sides next week. He's also tipping Luton to come good at a rare odds-against price and suggesting that Cambridge will have it all their own way at Macclesfield...

Grimsby Town v Newport County

With Newport County boss Justin Edinburgh stating that he will definitely rest players for this fixture, it looks as though there should only be one outcome. If Grimsby Town do win this game then the two sides are highly likely to meet next week in the playoff semi-finals. Given the option of that or a fierce Welsh derby with Wrexham I'm almost certain that Edinburgh would choose the former.

County can in effect engineer their path to the final and would probably choose to be coming back to Blundell Park next midweek for the first leg. Edinburgh has a large and mostly fit squad to choose from so we could see the likes of Danny Crow lining up in attack with main striker Aaron O'Connor being rested for the big games ahead.

Both sides take long unbeaten runs into the game, Grimsby's stands at eight matches while Newport are on nine. The way the re-arranged fixtures have worked out Grimsby have played seven of their last nine games away from home. Even with those big gaps their last victory in front of their own fans was back in late February. For that reason we are getting a good price on something that might not be reliant on what has gone before, but on what lies ahead.

Recommended Bet: Back Grimsby Town at 2.63 (Best bet)

Southport v Luton Town

The sentimental players in the Southport squad might want to give long-serving boss Liam Watson a big send-off by beating Luton in what will be his final game at Haig Avenue. Watson is moving on to pastures new and can consider it 'job done' in terms of ensuring Southport's Premier status.

One man with a job just beginning is Luton boss John Still who continues to run the rule over the squad left to him by Paul Buckle. One that started strong favourites for the division but will end up just above the midway point after this 46th game. Still has sensibly motivated his new charges by mentioning the prospect of playing for a contract in his promotion project next year and the players have responded with an unbeaten run of four matches.

The Hatters have probably been one of the worst odds-on performers in the whole football pyramid over the last few years but the opportunity to back them at a decent odds-against price while they are playing for their futures is too good to resist. One team have a boss to wave goodbye to and the others have a boss they are trying to impress and we should take advantage at a nice price.

Recommended Bet: Back Luton Town at 2.88

Macclesfield Town v Cambridge United

Barring a spirited second-half performance against Woking, Macclesfield are in a sorry state at the moment. That game at Kingfield saw them 5-0 down at half-time, but with pride restored on 90 minutes having pulled the score back to 5-4. That defeat comes at the end of a sequence of five with 16 goals conceded in the process.

The departure of boss Steve King coupled with their faint playoff hopes being extinguished has resulted in the brakes being applied sharply to their performances. They've won just one of their last 10 games, against bottom club Telford, and it's highly likely that the vast majority of the squad won't be around when a new manager is appointed ahead of the pre-season for the next campaign.

Opponents Cambridge United have lost just two of their last nine games under Richard Money and he will be hoping to sign off the season with a win which will guarantee a top-half finish by leapfrogging the hosts in the final table. Money is building towards an assault on the playoffs next season, which would be a realistic target. He has made The U's much harder to beat since arriving in October of last year. There is still some work to do, but I'd expect his squad to be up for this game and end their season on a high.