Non-League Previews: County the bet for all-Welsh final showdown

 

Alan Alger takes a look at Sunday's Blue Square Bet Premier Promotion Final. He's backing outsiders Newport County to get the better of their fellow countrymen at the national stadium.

 

Newport County AFC v Wrexham FC

TV: Live On Premier Sports

Kick-Off: Sunday 15:00

 

For the sixth time in 11 seasons the third and fifth placed teams in the final table will meet for a place in League Two. The five previous occasions have resulted in the third place team gaining promotion and I think Newport County can continue that trend here.

 

The fifth placed team has never been promoted, but they have a fantastic record of ousting the runners-up in the semi-final - as Wrexham did by an incredible 5-2 aggregate scoreline against in-form Kidderminster. That two-legged victory was the seventh time a side from fifth in the division has beaten the runners-up - but that effort obviously makes an impact once we get to the final.

 

It's worth speculating that it might hinder Wrexham on the day, although this is a team that consistently bounce back when written off (particularly by me). That said, the sensible bet on the game has to be a low scoring Newport County victory.

 

History is not on Newport's side having failed to win in their last six league outings against Wrexham, but recent results point to Justin Edinburgh's team coming into their best form. Ignore the 3-0 defeat at Grimsby on the final day. As tipped on this page, it was a clear opportunity for Edinburgh to rest players. Outside of that game at Blundell Park they have eight clean-sheets from 11 matches, including both semi-final legs against the Mariners. The former Tottenham defender slightly tweaked his defensive tactics and it has paid dividends, making them incredibly hard to score against.

 

Matches between these two teams haven't had much goalmouth action in the last three years. Just eight goals in the last six matches at just 1.33 per game. Newport in particular have struggled for goals against their fellow countrymen but with Christian Jolley in fine form he could exploit the space afforded by the big Wembley pitch and lead them to victory.

 

It's worth pointing out that Wrexham have Brett Ormerod in their line-up, who has already scored a winning goal at Wembley in the only playoff final that could be classed as more important than this one. Ormerod is also in good form too and if Wrexham are to win, he could be at the forefront of the good things they do. Yes Wrexham do relish being written off and confounding their critics, but the market has actually moved in the last few days to make them favourites and that could work against them. Newport as slight underdogs is a bet far too good to miss based on their recent form.

 

Recommended Bet:

Back Newport County AFC at 2.62

 

Bet HERE

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