NFL: Cardinals to have their wings clipped

29Oct 2012

Every game in the NFL is billed as a potential turning point. A pivotal result which can separate the first part of your season from everything that follows. Thursday night brought such a match, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers emphatically tuned the tables of recent form on the Minnesota Vikings. Both those sides could now be headed in very different directions.

Cue tonight's next primetime encounter, the San Francisco 49ers at the Arizona Cardinals. It's already a key divisional match-up between the top dogs in the NFC West. But whereas the Niners are looking to stamp their play-off ticket early and take a tight grip of the division (both Seattle and St Louis lost again on Sunday), the Cards are looking to arrest a three-game losing streak. One more loss and their slip could become a slide towards oblivion.

Conversely, a win would see Arizona pull level with the Red and Gold in their battle for the wild West. And it would strike an opportune blow to the 49ers whose schedule ramps up in difficulty after this game. The stirring giants of New Orleans and New England await San Francisco on foreign fields while in-form Chicago are also due to pay them a visit. So tonight would seem a good time to make great strides towards sealing the division.

The Niners, and more specifically their relentless RB Frank Gore, have been all about making great strides on the pitch, too. In a year in which Alex Smith's air assault has largely fallen short of its targets, ground gains been their offensive modus operandi. Gore covered a season-best 131 yards - and secured five catches for another 51 - against the notoriously stingy Seahawks in his last game. And he was protecting a badly bruised rib cage. Now, after a 10-day break, he returns afresh to face a side against which he has been perennially successful. Gore has averaged 113 rushing yards - featuring 11 touchdowns in as many career starts - against the Cards. Warm and fuzzies don't get much more comforting.

Moreover, Arizona, must halt an improving Kendall Hunter as well. The pair have combined to post 177 rushing yards per game, figures which put the Niners second in the league. Arizona were also run-first-pass-later proponents, but their running men (chiefly LaRod Stephens-Howling) have been slowed in recent outings.

Couple those issues to some more serious problems at quarter-back and you can see why Arizona have hit the skids. They lost the long arm of Kevin Kolb to injury in a random series against the Bills. And while starting QB, John Skelton, can also make some long connections (as evidenced by his latest 262-yard mark), he was sacked seven times and proved the source of two turnovers. In fact, since early November, Skelton has probed new lows in Interception Percentage - any QB's nightmare category - throwing 17 interceptions in just 349 efforts.

Skelton shouldn't expect those night terrors to vanish on Monday Night when the NFL's best defense line up on the other side of the ball. The 49ers are surrendering the least yards per game (272) of any team, and rank second in Points Conceded (14.2 pg). Their sack-leading linebackers, Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis, will be salivating at the prospect.

In short, then, this should prove a defining game in this division. And even with home advantage, it seems a game too far for an Arizona offense which has gone off the boil and will enjoy no respite from the harrying San Fran D. Another attritional game could well be in store, but don't write off Alex Smith (who has prevailed over the Cards in four of his last five) wracking up some air miles and working the scoreboard if Arizona open up in desperation. As a result, while siding with the Niners in both halves rates a solid play, the Overs at a paltry 37 mark are also worth an interest.

Recommended Bets

Back San Francisco (-7 points) on the Match Point Spread @ 2.0 or better

Back San Francisco (-3.5 points) on the First-Half Point Spread @ 1.9 or better

Back Over 37.5 Total Points @ 1.9 or better

(Source: Betfair)