Newcastle v Arsenal: Toon in, turn on and get out with three points

 

Arsene Wenger is hungry for a top-four spot and Tobias Gourlay believes the Gunners will devour their aimless hosts...

 

St James' Park

Sunday 16:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Newcastle 6.4 Arsenal 1.6 draw 4.6

 

 

Match Odds

Arsenal must win to guarantee a shot at the 2013/14 Champions League - and perhaps automatic qualification, if Everton stop Chelsea winning in West London.

The Gunners have not been prolific on the road, scoring six times in winning four straight recently, but Newcastle's is perhaps the defence they would have chosen to go up against on Sunday.

Alan Pardew's men have conceded 30 times in 18 league games at St James' Park this season. That's as many as anyone outside the doomed trio of Wigan, Reading and QPR. Most recently they have leaked nine in outings against Liverpool and Sunderland.

This weekend Pardew is down to his third-choice 'keeper, Steve Harper, but should be able to call on Steven Taylor in central defence.

The Newcastle boss now says this week's remark about not caring if his side lost this match 4-0 was a joke. We're not sure and are happy to back the visitors, who are pretty serious about wanting yet more Champions League next season.

This particular bit of the north-east holds little fear for Arsene Wenger (W5-D5-L1 against Newcastle recently) and the Magpies are quite used to finishing on a low note (W1-D5-L4 on final days in the last decade).

 

 

Over/Under Goals

Newcastle have conceded at least twice in 6/8 home games.

While the numbers at St James' Park justify a price of 1.6 for Over 2.5 Goals, Arsenal's record does not: this season 12 of their 18 away games have finished with two goals or fewer.

The win means little to the home side, but the boss's misguided - or misinterpreted - comment means a heavy defeat would be more embarrassing than usual. It would also recall the reverse fixture, which finished 7-3 to the Londoners.

A third reason to avoid a shellacking? That 6-0 defeat to Liverpool three weeks ago.

Newcastle should try to keep it tight, then, and at these prices we're ready to jump into Under 2.5 Goals.

 

Half Time/Full Time

Arsenal have been short of goals recently but, when they have come, they've arrived early.

The Arsenal/Arsenal double-result has paid out in each of their last three away wins.

Newcastle have been behind at the break in 5/7 home defeats this term and 9/13 since Pardew pitched up.

 

 

Arsenal Win To Nil

It's been like the old days recently. Arsenal have shut out their hosts in 4/6 on the road.

Newcastle have failed to score in 4/7 home and away.

Wenger's defenders remain eminently capable of individual errors, but the Clean Sheet might appeal at 2.88.

Put it together with the away win and you should get something like 3.3.

 

 

To Score

Theo Walcott has scored in each of Arsenal's last three matches.

He scored a hat-trick in the reverse fixture, easily dodging Newcastle's offside trap and outrunning a high defensive line.

 

Best Bet

Back Arsenal @ 1.6

 

Recommended Bet

Back Arsenal/Arsenal @ 2.6

 

Bet HERE

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