Newcastle to struggle in London

10May 2013

England - Premier League

It's the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season and Paul Robinson casts his eye over some crucial fixtures that affect both the top and bottom of the table. Here are his selections from Betfair's Sportsbook:

Norwich v West Brom

Back the draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back a 1-1 correct score @ 6.5 (11/2)

Norwich and West Brom come into this match on the back of successive defeats and I can see the spoils being shared on Sunday afternoon.

Chris Hughton will have breathed a huge sigh of relief after Wigan threw away victory against Swansea on Wednesday. The Canaries still have a three point cushion to the relegation zone and as they have to travel to Man City on the final day, they won't want to have to go into that match needing a result.

Norwich are going to find it tough against West Brom though and I think their win price of a shade above evens is just too short to back. They've only won twice since the 15th of December and they've drawn five of their last eight at Carrow Road.

The Baggies put up a creditable performance at the Etihad on Tuesday but they lost 1-0 and that follows on from the disappointing home defeat to Wigan at the weekend. Prior to that, Steve Clarke's side had thrashed Southampton at St Mary's to end a four match winless run, and I think they should have enough about them to cause Norwich plenty of problems.

Romelu Lukaku is proving a handful against any opposition and he has scored 14 Premier League goals this term. Defensively, aside from the three they conceded at Upton Park, WBA have conceded no more than one in their last half dozen away from the Hawthorns so as well as backing the draw, I think backing a 1-1 correct score at 6.5 (11/2) would be a sensible bet.

Sunderland v Southampton

Back Sunderland @ 2.7 (17/10)

Back Sunderland to win 2-1 @ 9.5 (17/2)

Sunderland have a suspension and injury crisis heading into their match with Southampton on Sunday but their match odds of 2.7 (17/10) simply can't be ignored against a Saints team who have picked up just two points from a possible 12.

Paulo Di Canio's side earned a much needed point at home to Stoke on Monday but it came at a cost as Craig Gardner was sent off and he now joins Stephane Sessegnon on the suspended list. The Black Cats are also missing the likes of Steven Fletcher and Wes Brown through injury so the Italian manager doesn't have many options to choose from.

Sunderland do have one thing in their favour though and that is their goal difference. As it is so superior to their relegation rivals, they know that victory at the weekend will almost certainly see them safe for another year. That should prove a huge motivation for the fans and players alike and The Stadium Of Light will be rocking.

Southampton had looked set for a mid-table finish but two draws followed by two defeats has left them on the edge of a relegation scrap. Mauricio Pochettino also has suspensions to worry about as both Danny Fox and Gaston Ramirez are out following red cards against West Brom.

Rickie Lambert has 14 goals to his name this season but he hasn't scored in five and his goals are vital to The Saints' success. They've won just once on the road in their last eight and failed to score in three of the last four.

A home win is a great value bet at 2.7 (17/10) although I can see Southampton scoring a goal, so a 2-1 correct score at 9.5 (17/2) is my other selection.

QPR v Newcastle

Back the draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back a 1-1 correct score @ 6.5 (11/2)

Newcastle are another team in the relegation mix and I can seem them only being able to get a point at rock bottom QPR.

Harry Redknapp's side look set to finish bottom of the pile after picking up just two points from a possible 21. They haven't been thrashed in any of their recent matches but their lack of quality, especially in front of goal, has been there for all to see.

Rangers haven't scored in over 360 minutes of football and the likes of Loic Remy almost seem a touch disinterested now that their fate has been sealed.

Newcastle have had an appalling campaign, domestically at least, and while there have been mitigating circumstances - European football and terrible luck with injuries - they simply haven't been good enough.

Alan Pardew managed to lift his players to earn a point at West Ham following the embarrassing 6-0 thrashing by Liverpool at St James' Park, but they still only have a three point cushion over Wigan.

Victory at Loftus Road should see them safe but they haven't won away since January and the draw seems the value bet here at 3.4 (12/5). QPR may be struggling in front of goal but the Magpies have shipped an astonishing 66 goals this season so a 1-1 correct score looks good at odds of 6.5 (11/2).

Recommended Bets

Back a Norwich v West Brom draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back a 1-1 correct score in Norwich v West Brom @ 6.5 (11/2)

Back Sunderland @ 2.7 (17/10)

Back Sunderland to win 2-1 @ 9.5 (17/2)

Back a QPR v Newcastle draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back a 1-1 correct score in QPR v Newcastle @ 6.5 (11/2)

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