Napoli to sweep aside pitiful PSV

5Dec 2012

Europa Liga

The Europa League's group stage is coming to a close, and Kevin Hatchard's been on the hunt for the best bets.

Napoli vs PSV Eindhoven, Thu 18:00 BST

Match Odds: Napoli 1.82, PSV 5.0, the draw 3.95

PSV have struggled badly throughout the group stage, winning just one of their five games. Their away form in the competition has been particularly poor - they lost 2 -0 in Ukraine against Dnipro and 1-0 at Swedish side AIK. PSV's general form isn't too clever either - they have lost their last three matches in all competitions, and at the weekend they were beaten 3-1 at title rivals Ajax.

Napoli have already qualified for the last 32, and they could top the group if they win and Dnipro suffer a highly unlikely defeat at home to AIK. Napoli's home form this season has been stunning - they have won six and drawn two in Serie A, while in the Europa League they have beaten AIK 4-0 and Dnipro 4-2. I'm amazed that Napoli are so big for the win against a PSV side with nothing to play for, so take advantage.

Viktoria Plzen vs Atletico Madrid, Thu 18:00 BST

Match Odds: Plzen 2.58 Atletico 2.94, the draw 3.55

Group B's top two go head-to-head, with top spot still at stake. Atletico will win the section if they avoid defeat, so Plzen need to win. In the reverse fixture Atletico scraped a 1-0 victory, eventually breaking down a determined Plzen defence with a stoppage-time winner.

This game will be different, as Plzen have to chase a win at some stage in the match. That will play into the hands of a powerful Atletico side that loves to counter- attack. I can't see many goals - just one of Atletico's last eight games has featured Over 2.5 Goals, and they have kept clean sheets in five of their last six matches. As for Plzen, they have conceded just one goal in their five home games in Europe this term.

The standout bet is Under 2.5 Goals at 2.08, but it's also worth backing Atletico +0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.09, as it gives you your stake back if the match ends in a draw.

Back Atletico +0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.09

Bordeaux vs Newcastle United, Thu 18:00 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Bordeaux 1.82, Newcastle 5.0, the draw 3.85

Both of these teams have made it through to the knockout phase, but the title of group winners is still up for grabs. Newcastle's clumsy 1-1 draw with Maritimo cost them pole position, and they now need a win to leapfrog Bordeaux.

The Magpies' squad has been stretched by a glut of injuries, and after a run of four Premier League defeats in five matches, manager Alan Pardew is unlikely to field a strong team. Cheick Tiote, Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba and Davide Santon are all out injured, but Papiss Cisse and Fabricio Coloccini have made the trip. Newcastle's preparations have been disrupted by wintry weather on Tyneside, which delayed their flight to France by several hours.

Bordeaux have won both of their home games against Maritimo (1-0) and Club Brugge (4-0), and they are unbeaten at home in Ligue 1, with three wins and four draws. Newcastle are yet to win in 11 away games in all competitions this season, so the 1.82 on offer for the home win is about right. Bordeaux have kept clean sheets in three of their last four home games, while Newcastle have managed shutouts in three of their five Europa League group games, so backing No in the Both Teams to Score market looks good value at 2.04.

Recommended Bets: Back Bordeaux to win at 1.82

Back No in the Both Teams to Score market at 2.04

Inter Milan vs Neftchi Baku, Thu 20:05 BST

Match Odds: Inter 1.4, Neftchi 10.0, the draw 5.1

This is a dead rubber - Inter have qualified for the last 32, but can't grab top spot, while Neftchi have been eliminated after collecting just two points. Inter aren't on great form, with just one win in their last five, but I can't believe they are 2.32 to Win to Nil against a limited team that has failed to score in three of five European away games. Inter won 1-0 at home to Palermo at the weekend, and I can see a similar result on Thursday.

Recommended Bets: Back Inter to Win to Nil at 2.32