Murray has his work cut out against Del Potro

15Mar 2013

ATP Masters 1000

Andy Murray takes on Juan Martin Del Potro for a place in the semi finals of the BNP Paribas Open tonight and Sean Calvert thinks it could be a tough one for the Scot..

Thursday's late night affair between Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer was hardly worth staying up for as Federer was severely hampered by injury, which allowed Rafa to take a comfortable win in straight sets.

The Swiss was in no condition to extend the match as he probably would have with a fully functioning back and hopefully those on the match odds betting took my advice of siding with Rafa in that particular market.

Elsewhere, my outright tip of Tomas Berdych is still going strong and the Czech faces Nadal tomorrow in the semi finals, but first there's the remaining quarter finals and Andy Murray takes on Juan Martin Del Potro at 10.30pm UK time tonight.

Delpo will fancy his chances in this one based on the respective form of the two players this week at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden and I won't be investing in the 1.48 about a Murray on this occasion.

I'd side with Murray if it were a Slam, but his Masters form is very patchy and he doesn't seem to have the same intensity in these events and the fact that Ivan Lendl isn't here this week isn't really a positive for the Scot.

That said, Delpo is yet to defeat Murray on a hard court in three attempts on the tour (and one in juniors) but he has taken a set each time and they haven't played each other since 2009.

Murray has been far from his best this week and was last seen struggling to a win over Carlos Berlocq, while complaining about his opponent's grunting and all doesn't seem quite right with the Scot at this moment.

Delpo is yet to drop a set so far this tournament and he crushed Tommy Haas 6-1, 6-2 yesterday, winning 18 of 24 points on the Haas second serve, which will a key factor again today.

Murray only won 38% of his second serve points against the limited Berlocq and that stat was barely any better against Yen Hsun Lu and Evgeny Donskoy, so the Argentine will surely be looking to pounce on that aspect of play today.

I think the best play in this one is to side with Delpo to take a set, which will be priced up at around the 1.75 mark and looks the best bet today.

I suspect that Murray will sneak through in the end and bigger priced punters may look to the Murray 2-1 win at 4.2, but the likelihood of Del Potro winning at least one set looks high to me.