Moyes derby misery set to continue

 

Andrew Atherley crunches the numbers to come up with some recommended wagers on this weekend's Premier League games, including Liverpool to once again get the better  of Everton in the Merseyside derby...

 

Aston Villa's 6-1 win over Sunderland was not a complete surprise given their recent solid form and they have a good chance to continue their strong finish to the  season when they visit Norwich on Saturday for a crunch relegation clash.

 

The six-match form table has Villa in seventh place, but it is often worth digging a little deeper to see how solid the underlying form is. In Villa's case, their  recent form against teams outside the big six indicates their turnaround in form is not a flash in the pan.

 

Villa have taken 16 points from a possible 18 in their last six games against non-big-six teams, ranking them third in that category on current form behind Arsenal (a  perfect 18 points) and Manchester United (16 points but with a marginally superior goal difference to Villa).

 

The other teams near the top of that ranking are pretty much what you would expect (Chelsea, Manchester City, Everton), which emphasises how well Villa are doing to be  in such exalted company.

 

Two of Villa's last three games are away to teams from outside the big six (Norwich on Saturday and Wigan on the final day) and it is notable that they are unbeaten in  that category on the road since a 1-0 defeat at Fulham on October 20.

 

Villa have scored in all seven of those most recent trips to non-big-six teams and it is also notable that the last five have had Over 2.5 Goals, which is available at  1.98 on Saturday.

 

The bet that appeals most is Villa on the Asian handicap, either off 0 & +0.5 at 1.8 or, probably better still once the market settles, off scratch.

 

There is a distinct draw bias in the records of both Villa and Norwich, which makes that outcome worth covering, although Villa's improving form might mean their win  chance is underestimated at 3.15.

 

West Ham, like Villa, might just have their optimum form conditions on Saturday when they host struggling Newcastle.

 

The Hammers' best form is at Upton Park and they are unbeaten in eight home games against teams below them in the table (five wins, three draws).

 

The record looks even better when the top seven away teams are excluded from the results - against the rest, West Ham have won seven out of 10 with three draws.

 

Given that Newcastle are the second-worst away team in the Premier League (and final-day visitors Reading are the worst), West Ham look set for a good end to the  season and win odds of 2.4 on Saturday look too big.

 

The stats say Everton cannot win the Merseyside derby without a clean sheet, which makes Liverpool appealing on Sunday at win odds of 2.02.

 

In 21 Premier League derbies under David Moyes, Everton have won just three and for each of those victories they needed to keep a clean sheet. Whenever Everton have  conceded in derbies under Moyes, they have lost 12 out of 16 with four draws. And the last time Liverpool scored in a league derby and lost was way back in November  1995.

 

Liverpool have won eight out of 13 when scoring at home this season and three of the failures were against big-six teams. Against teams outside the top six on away  form (Everton are eighth), Liverpool have a 58% win rate (seven wins, three draws, two defeats) but that rises to 78% (seven wins out of nine) when they score.

 

Arguably Liverpool should be odds-on and their Indian sign over Everton makes them the pick.

 

 

Recommended Bets

Back Aston Villa off 0 & +0.5 on Asian handicap at 1.8

Back West Ham to beat Newcastle at 2.4

Back Liverpool to beat Everton at 2.02

 

Bet HERE

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