More Wenger woes predicted

6Dec 2012

Premier League

Jaymes Monte has crunched the numbers and picked out his best bets for the non-televised Premier League games this weekend...

Arsenal 1.52 v West Brom 7.6; The Draw 4.6

Arsenal's home form has never the same since they left Highbury, but never before has it sunk to these depths. The Gunners have won only three of their last 10 Premier League home games.

Fortunately for Arsene Wenger this weekend they face a West Brom side that have gone off the boil in recent weeks. Had this fixture been played around a fortnight ago, The Baggies would look an outstanding bet at odds of 7.6. As it is a lay of the hosts at 1.52 is the choice.

The most interesting stat from Opta is that in the last six league meetings between the Gunners and West Brom, there have been five goals scored in the opening 10 minutes. It is 4.1 that we see a goal inside the first 10 minutes this weekend.

Aston Villa 2.52 v Stoke 3.2; The Draw 3.35

Five of the last seven Premier League meetings between Aston Villa and Stoke have ended as draws, including three of the four played at Villa Park, while between them they've battled out 12 Premier League draws in 30 games played to this point this season. At 3.35 a share of the points is the only bet in the match odds market.

The bet of the match, however, is the 1.68 available on there being fewer than three goals in the game.

There have been just eight goals scored in the last six matches between Villa and Stoke, while The Potters have kept the most clean sheets in the Premier League this season (7).

Southampton 1.98 v Reading 4.2; The Draw 3.8

Another must-win game for both Southampton and Reading as the two newly-promoted sides meet each other occupying two of the three relegation positions.

Both sides' problems this season stem from being unable to hold onto winning positions. Reading have thrown away more points from winning positions on the road than any other side this season (10) and the most overall (17), and Southampton have thrown away more points from winning positions in home games than any other Premier League team this season (9).

This looks to be an in-play bettors paradise and if you're having a bet be sure to locate that Cash Out button and utilise it.

Sunderland 5.0 v Chelsea 1.82; The Draw 3.9

Aside from that memorable 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge two seasons ago Sunderland's record against Chelsea is nothing short of atrocious. The Blues have won 14 and lost one of the last 15 Premier League games against Sunderland. Yet both teams come into this game bereft of form.

Chelsea are without a win in seven Premier League games (L3 D4) - their longest run without a win in the top-flight since February 1995 (10 without a win), while Sunderland have won only one of their last nine and just two of their last 22 Premier League matches.

It'd take a brave man to back either of the teams for all three points, so the draw makes sense at 3.9

Swansea 1.87 v Norwich 5.0; The Draw 3.75

Notions of second-season syndrome are being pushed firmly to one side by both Swansea and Norwich after slightly suspicious starts to the campaign. Norwich are unbeaten in eight league games, their joint best run in the Premier League, while Swansea could, mathematically, move up to third in the Premier League with all three points.

Such disparity in the match odds markets seems a little disrespectful to The Canaries' recent run of form, and if anything I'd be looking to lay the hosts at those odds.

But the bet is to back Michu to score at odds of 2.3. The Spaniard has scored four goals in his last four Premier League appearances and his 10 Premier League goals this season have come from 18 shots on target.

Everton 2.08 v Tottenham 4.0; The Draw 3.55

Sunday's 3pm game is a real mouth-waterer with just three points separating Spurs and Everton at kick-off. Andre Villas-Boas's men are building up a head of steam and come into this one on the back of three successive victories.

The Toffees are also in decent nick having lost just one of their last 12 league games, but have drawn seven of their last nine. Two of those most recent draws have been amicable points gained against Manchester City and Arsenal, however.

It's a game that both managers would likely see as a draw being a point gained rather than two lost. Back the draw at odds of 3.55.

Recommended Bets:

Villa v Stoke - Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.68

Everton v Spurs - Back The Draw @ 3.55

Lay Arsenal to win @ 1.52