Monte Carlo Rolex Masters Betting: Gasquet the value alternative to Nadal

 

The first clay court Masters 1000 of the season begins today and tennis expert Sean Calvert casts his eye over the draw to find a better bet than eight time defending  champion Rafa Nadal...

 

The clay court swing gathers pace this week with the ATP Tour moving on to Monaco for the 2013 Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters.

 

Rafa Nadal has used this place as his own private playground for the last eight years, winning the title eight times and compiling a 44-1 record, with his only loss  coming at the hands of Guillermo Coria back in 2003.

 

This year there is no David Ferrer through injury or Roger Federer, who has skipped this event and there was almost no Novak Djokovic, who turned his ankle in Davis  Cup and made a late decision to play.

 

So, Djokovic is the number one seed and joining the Serb in the top half of the draw are Juan Martin Del Potro, who took a late wild card to be here, Tomas Berdych and  Richard Gasquet.

 

In Nole's quarter are Juan Monaco and John Isner, who will both make the journey from Houston to Monte-Carlo to play; Milos Raonic, who can be effective on clay;  Bernard Tomic, who usually isn't; Ernests Gulbis and Alex Dolgopolov, who can be anything; and Del Potro.

 

There's little value in backing Djokovic in his current condition at 4.5 and that is quite a tricky section of the draw to negotiate.

 

Berdych is once again drawn with Gasquet in what looks a weak quarter, with Marin Cilic, Andreas Seppi and Kevin Anderson the best of the rest ahead of qualifying to  be completed.

 

The Berdman made the semis here last year, beating Andy Murray before losing to Djokovic and he took a much-needed break last week after playing a lot of tennis early  in the season.

 

Gasquet also missed Davis Cup with an injury and he's not a regular at this non-mandatory Masters 1000 event, having played here only twice since 2008, although he did  memorably beat Federer here back in 2005.

 

The bottom half of the draw features Murray and Nadal and world number two Murray has Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Stan Wawrinka, Nico Almagro, David Goffin and  Nikolay Davydenko in his quarter.

 

The Scot made the semis here in 2011 and 2009, losing to Rafa both times and that's realistically the best that he can expect again unless Nadal's suspect knees take a  turn for the worst.

 

The interesting one in that section is Almagro, who beat Murray in their only clay court meeting at Roland Garros, but Almagro is coming back from Houston and he has a  poor record in Monte Carlo.

 

Nadal's section looks comfortable for the Spaniard, with a well out of form Fernando Verdasco a likely first opponent, but others in his quarter are of the calibre of  Janko Tipsarevic, Gilles Simon, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Grigor Dimitrov. It would be remarkable if Nadal didn't emerge from that section into the semi finals.

 

Indeed, it would be quite a turn up if Rafa didn't win, but he's hardly an original pick at around 1.57 with questionable knees, so the logical choice is to find a good back-to-lay shot in the Djokovic/Berdych half of the draw.

 

Berdych himself is an option, but he's a touch short at around 21.0 and at three times the price Gasquet looks a very good alternative.

 

The Gasman has been very solid this year and he did reach the semi finals in Miami before being outgunned by Murray and he has a good record against Berdych to call  upon as well.

 

He did well in his clay swing last year, beating Murray in Rome and losing only to Murray, Ferrer, Del Potro and Federer on the dirt last year and he looks the best  option at a tempting 67.0.

 

Recommended Bet

Back to lay Gasquet at 67.0

 

Bet HERE

Viewed 585 times