Monaco GP Betting: Rosberg set for victory?

26May 2013

Nico Rosberg secured his third consecutive pole position in Monaco - is there anything Sebastian Vettel and the rest can do to stop him taking the win?

Going into Monaco both Mercedes and Red Bull had qualifying records to fight for. Red Bull, had taken the last three pole positions in Monaco and the treble defending World Champions converted all three into victories, while Mercedes have been the fastest qualifiers in the previous three races this season and knew that securing a front row start for either Lewis Hamilton or Nico Rosberg guaranteed them a strong chance of victory.

From the start of the weekend it looked as if Rosberg would be the man to beat, the #9 Mercedes looking fast and smooth on the Principality's roads, and the German, who lives just a stone's throw from the track, duly secured pole position - his third in a row - while teammate Hamilton lines up alongside, less than a tenth of a second slower.

Rosberg was available at over 4.0 to take pole position prior to the weekend, and with that secured his victory odds currently stand at 2.4, with Hamilton at 4.8. In the last ten years, only once has the Monaco Grand Prix been won from anywhere other than pole position, that coming in 2008 when Hamilton triumphed from third in a wet-dry race. With nothing but sunshine expected tomorrow I don't see anything, barring unforeseen mechanical dramas, to stand in Rosberg's way of taking victory.

What of their tyre wear issues, I hear you cry? Odd as it may seem given Monaco's extremely tight and twisty nature, the track is not particularly challenging on tyre wear given that there is little in the way of high lateral cornering speeds throughout the lap. With temperatures expected to be in the region of 17-20 degrees, this should play into their hands by allowing them to get their tyres up to speed quickly but not stress them too much during the race.

Additionally, Mercedes are in a great position with Hamilton lying second, who can do a job for the team by allowing Rosberg to escape up the road in the first stint, to give him that platform for victory. You can bet Lewis won't like it very much, and he'll surely be going all-out to get ahead into the first corner, but Nico feels he is owed one by the team after dutifully holding station behind Lewis in Malaysia, and will no doubt be reminding the team hierarchy of that this evening.

Jean-Eric Vergne did a solid job for Toro Rosso by getting into the Top Ten and is available at 1.5 to finish there tomorrow. For a slightly longer shot, have a look at Nico Hulkenberg of Sauber. He'll most likely start, from 11th, on a contrary strategy to the cars in the Top Ten, so has the ability to run longer at the start. Monaco is a track where you can gain track position which is not easily regained by the people you've passed, and last year three drivers who started outside the Top Ten secured points, including Nico himself who went from 11th to 8th. Back him at 1.7 to repeat the trick this year.

I also think Sergio Perez can secure a Top Six Finish for McLaren. The young Mexican loves the Monaco track and has won in GP2, so could offer a decent return at 2.6 to move up a spot from his starting place of seventh.

Recommended Bets

Back Nico Rosberg to win the Monaco GP @ 2.4

Back Sergio Perez to finish in the Top Six @ 2.6

Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the Top Ten @ 1.7