Mixed fortunes in store for Top Four chasers

24Apr 2013

England - Premier League

There are just a few short weeks left in the Premier League season and Paul Robinson casts his eye over the odds available on Betfair's Sportsbook for this coming weekend's matches. Here are his selections:

Stoke v Norwich

Back Stoke @ 2.05 (21/20)

Back Stoke to win 1-0 @ 6.0 (5/1)

Both of these two won for the first time in a long while last weekend to ease their relegation fears but with home advantage in Stoke's favour here, I'm backing them to make it two from two.

Tony Pulis led his team to their first league victory since the beginning of February at QPR on Saturday and while they are still in a relegation battle, they have a six point cushion over Wigan. Perhaps even more impressively, it was their first away win since December 1st 2012 and only their second since January 2nd of that year. Obviously Rangers are a poor side who are going down, but you can't take anything away from Stoke's 2-0 victory.

Peter Crouch opened the scoring and it was his first goal in 10 games. The England international has been in and out of the team in recent weeks but he is clearly the best striker they have and it wouldn't surprise me if he notched two or three more before the season ends.

Norwich have a point more than Stoke and you could tell that they had identified their home clash with Reading as a must win. They only won 2-1 in the end, but it was good enough to move them up to 13th, seven points clear of danger.

Obviously Chris Hughton will want to avoid defeat at Stoke, but the Britannia is a hard place to go to and with back to back matches at Carrow Road against Villa and WBA on the horizon, it is likely that the former Newcastle boss will be targeting those two to get the win they need to break the magic 40 point barrier.

The Canaries have lost six of their last eight on the road - drawing the other two - and scored just four goals during that period. Stoke look good for the win here at odds-against, and while it's a bit unoriginal, I like the look of a 1-0 correct score at 6.0 (5/1).

Wigan v Tottenham

Back Tottenham @ 2.05 (21/20)

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.7 (7/10)

Wigan are right back in the mire after back to back defeats whereas Tottenham are on the up again after a scintillating second half comeback against Man City. They meet at the DW on Saturday and Spurs look like the value bet.

The Latics had begun their end of season revival by picking up seven points from a possible nine but they've since lost to Man City and West Ham without scoring a goal. The defeat at the Etihad can be excused, and in truth, they played very well, but the 2-0 loss at Upton Park at the weekend must have disappointed Roberto Martinez.

Wigan are back on home soil on Saturday and while three points adrift of safety, they do have a game in hand over Aston Villa above them. The problem for me though is that most of the teams around them have started to win again and Wigan seem to have ran out of steam. The players may also have one eye on the FA Cup final as despite its diminished status in recent years, a Wembley Cup Final is the pinnacle for most of them to date.

Spurs had almost been written off for a top four finish at 14:45 on Sunday but three excellent substitutions from the manager turned the game on its head and Tottenham are now just one point behind Chelsea and two behind Arsenal, with a game in hand over the latter.

The introduction of Tom Huddlestone and Jermain Defoe, in particular, galvanised the struggling Spurs and I would be surprised if AVB didn't go with a 4-3-3 formation for the trip to Wigan. They will also take heart from the fact that their away record has been excellent since Christmas. They have lost just once on the road from eight fixtures, winning five and drawing two.

You could argue that this is almost a must win game for both teams, but I think the North Londoners extra quality will win the day, especially as Gareth Bale should be back to full fitness. The goals will surely flow as well, so over 2.5 at 1.7 (7/10) looks like a stick on banker.

Arsenal v Man United

Back Man United @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back Man United to be leading at HT @ 3.9 (29/10)

Manchester United have the title sewn up and Arsenal are in a titanic struggle for a top four finish, so you'd think that The Gunners' extra desire would win the day live on Sky Sports One at 16:00 this Sunday. That may well be true, but I can't leave United un-backed when they are available at 3.4 (12/5).

The Gunners are on an excellent run of form having picked up 16 points from a possible 18 since their defeat at White Hart Lane. That run has propelled them to third in the table, although there is only a cigarette paper between themselves, Chelsea and Spurs in the race for the Champions League places.

Arsene Wenger's men put a disappointing 0-0 home draw with Everton behind them by beating Fulham at Craven Cottage at the weekend, but they were aided by the early dismissal of Steve Sidwell, and in truth, Arsenal were pretty poor for the most part. Olivier Giroud saw red late in that match and while his ban is being appealed, it is doubtful that it will be overturned and he will be suspended for this one.

Manchester United wrapped up the Premier League title by beating Aston Villa on Monday but Alex Ferguson isn't one to let his players rest on their laurels, especially when they face Arsene Wenger's Arsenal. The two have enjoyed a long and sometimes bitter rivalry, and there is just no way that Ferguson will want to do the Frenchman any favours.

The Red Devils still have things to play for anyway. Firstly, they are chasing a record points haul and they will need to win all their remaining games to achieve it. Secondly, Robin Van Persie is in contention to win the Golden Boot and I'm sure he'd love nothing more than to score against his former club. Finally, there are a number of players who could be playing for their United futures. Wayne Rooney, Shinji Kagawa, Nani and even Antonio Valencia have underwhelmed this term and they will want to put in a late burst to avoid facing the chop in the summer.

United are a stand-out price to me at 3.4 (12/5) and I'd also suggest backing them to be leading at half time at odds of 3.9 (29/10) as Arsenal have taken a while to warm up in games this season.

Recommended Bets

Back Stoke @ 2.05 (21/20)

Back Stoke to win 1-0 @ 6.0 (5/1)

Back Tottenham @ 2.05 (21/20)

Back Over 2.5 goals in Wigan v Tottenham @ 1.7 (7/10)

Back Man United @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back Man United to be leading at HT @ 3.9 (29/10)

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