Midweek League One Betting: Pools to prevail in basement battle

12Feb 2013

Betfair

League One expert Alan Dudman is back to look at another round of midweek matches, and expects Portsmouth to struggle at Hartlepool in Tuesday night's 'battle of the bottom two'. Elsewhere Yeovil can extend their winning sequence and heap more pressure on Preston boss Graham Westley - at an outstanding price.

Hartlepool United 1.92 v Portsmouth 4.20, the draw 3.90

The sad demise of Portsmouth this season has been desperate to watch. The south coast club have fallen to

second from bottom in League One, a point ahead of Tuesday night's opponents Hartlepool - long been the

whipping boys of the division. If ever the phrase 'proverbial six-pointer' was needed it was here, although I have never quite understood it, three points for a victory has always been the system.

Back to Pompey, whose challenge is fielding a team every week, more so than winning games. The club have used over 50 players this season, and caretaker manager Guy Whittingham is now describing matches in comparison to a pre-season clash every week - such is the number of new faces. Off-field matters are also impacting on match preparations and training.

Portsmouth equalled a club record nine consecutive defeats on Saturday at Bournemouth (losing 2-0) and there is absolutely no way they should be trading at 4.20. Maybe the layers are taking no risks judged on the encouraging first 45 minutes against the Cherries - where they showed good discipline and defended well. Their front two were also better, with the inclusion of Pat Agyemang giving a bit more pace and power. But can you really back a side at that price whose main goal is just to stay competitive?

But then we have Hartlepool, who have 17 games left to preserve their League One status. It's a long shot, with them still being 12 points from safety, but they have been picking up points of late. If you fancy a great escape as a layer, Pools are 1.07 for relegation. Pompey incidentally are 1.02.

The north east outfit secured a 1-1 draw at Swindon on Saturday. Their boss Paolo Di Canio called his own team 'donkeys', which was unfair on Hartlepool who showed lots of determination and desire - if rather fortunate to pick up a point. That result was their eighth point away from home from a possible 12 recently, so not as desperate as the start of the season.

With three wins from their last seven, the home team are in far better shape than Portsmouth. Manager John Hughes will stress how important psychologically a victory over their nearest rivals would be. I also think Hartlepool's attacking trio of Charlie Wykes, James Poole and Jon Franks could be the difference here.

Recommended bets:

Back Hartlepool to win @ 1.92

Brentford 2.02 v Stevenage Borough 4.20, the draw 3.60

Brentford face Chelsea on Sunday for their FA Cup fourth round replay, which is the angle of attack in to this game. A trip to Stamford Bridge against the European champions looks far more exciting than a home clash against Stevenage. And no matter how many players and managers say it's not a distraction, it is.

The Bees have seen their league form dip during their cup exploits. Manager Uwe Rosler insists the results have suffered but not the performances. However, they have won only one from their last seven games and failed to beat Bury at the weekend, despite having virtually the whole match.

Bury's performance was amazing in Saturday's 2-2 draw at Griffin Park. They only had two shots on goal and no possession, and yet still gained a point. The Shakers are quite poor, and Stevenage (when on song) are a better team.

Strange as it may sound, there is more pressure on Brentford for this encounter than there will be on Sunday. The Boro should take advantage of this, especially as they are away from home, where they have been a bit edgy recently.

Stevenage manager Gary Smith was left ruing some poor refereeing during Saturday's 2-1 loss at Carlisle. That was also their third game in seven days which might have taken it's toll. Smith went back to the 4-4-2 he has often used this season, having tinkered with a 4-3-3 against Notts County the week before.

Boro midfielder Luke Freeman is an important player with the four through the middle, as he can get to the outside of the centre-backs. Smith has mentioned about his team 'trying to stay in matches', which might give an idea for a fairly tight first 45 minutes. Although the visitors are fairly inconsistent, I would look at laying Brentford rather than an outright win for the Hertfordshire team.

Recommended bets:

Lay Brentford @ 2.02

Yeovil Town 2.30 v Preston North End 3.50, the draw 3.40

Often the name of a club can influence a price. See above with Portsmouth. On recent form, Yeovil are a 4/6 shot, which again makes them an outstanding bet this Tuesday. I should really be whispering this, but it takes a while for layers and backers to react to teams flying in League One. It happened with Tranmere at the start of the season, who were still readily available to back in home games at odds-against, when they should have been much shorter.

Put simply, this match presents a bang-in-form team against a woefully out-of-nick one. And the prices are wrong.

I won't need to dwell on Yeovil too much, as the last three weeks of this column has given them a fair amount of space. But they picked up their sixth win on the spin on Saturday at Coventry, and have won seven of their last eight (the only defeat coming against Bournemouth). It's a 4-4-2 with goals from Paddy Madden, who hit his 16th of the season at the Ricoh, but they are very good defensively.

At home, the Glovers might also be more aggressive than they were at the weekend.

Preston meanwhile haven't won at home since September, and they lost again on Saturday at Colchester 1-0. Lilywhites boss Graham Westley is severely under pressure, with his side slipping to within five points of the relegation zone. One does wonder how much longer the North End board will accept the results and the performances.

Westley made four changes against Colchester, yet he is still talking of 'building'. Yes he has had poor fortune with injuries, but their mindset doesn't look right at the moment and they really struggled at the weekend, whilst defensively they are conceding soft goals. Preston's away form earlier this season was slightly better, but recently it's been poor, with just one win from their last five on their travels.

Recommended bets:

Back Yeovil to win @ 2.30