Midweek League One Betting: Keep the faith with Robinson's Dons

9Apr 2013

Betfair

With five crucial games spread over Tuesday and Wednesday, League One man Alan Dudman previews all the midweek encounters and will be keeping faith with the MK Dons and divisional leaders Doncaster.

MK Dons 2.86 v Swindon Town 2.78, the draw 3.35

Tuesday night's match at the Stadium MK is a must win game for the hosts. The Dons boss Karl Robinson stated over the weekend it will be 'all out'. Crucially, three points will cut into Swindon's lead (who currently occupy the final play-off spot).

How the Buckinghamshire side failed to win on Saturday is beyond me. During the 0-0 draw against Crawley, the MK Dons blew chance after chance, dominated the 90 minutes and pummelled the Sussex club. Ryan Lowe had an amazing three goals disallowed all for offside, whilst Town's keeper produced a Gordon Banks style save.

The hosts have kept three successive clean sheets, whilst Opta stats show the recent supremacy of the MK Dons - who have lost just one of their last six games with Swindon.

The Robins might be wobbling a bit, with just one win from their last six outings, and new boss Kevin MacDonald has been criticised recently for his use of the 4-5-1. On the plus side, Town will be fresher as they had no match over the weekend. However, the home team have got to go for it, and if they replicate Saturday's display they should win.

Recommended bet:

Back MK Dons to win @ 2.86

Doncaster Rovers 1.76 v Carlisle United 5.40, the draw 3.95

Doncaster Rovers are the 1-0 team, having been successful with that scoreline in their last three games. Saturday's victory over Tranmere showed exactly the fundamentals of Brian Flynn's side. They are big and strong and a huge threat from set-plays. Defensively the Keepmoat men are rock solid - conceding only twice at home in their last six outings (keeping four clean sheets).

In-running players should note an Opta nugget, only Yeovil (with 18 goals) have scored more in the final 15 minutes of a match than Doncaster (with 17).

Carlisle all but sealed their League One safety with a 2-1 win at Oldham Athletic. On a poor pitch the Cumbrians played really well, and were missing three first-team regulars - two of which are doubtful again this Tuesday.

The Keepmoat is also a poor playing surface and the ball will spend most of the evening in the sky, so I expect Carlisle to be under pressure in their own box, and with them virtually safe for the season, the hosts should be too strong.

Recommended bets:

Back Doncaster to win @ 1.76

Back HT score 1-0 @ 4.0

Preston North End 2.12 v Oldham Athletic 4.0, the draw 3.50

Preston are another very strong defensive team, and have been especially since the introduction of manager

Simon Grayson. North End have conceded only five goals in their last 10 games, with a magical five clean sheets included in that run.

The Whites were 3-0 winners on Saturday over Scunthorpe, but did look edgy at 1-0. Their plan is fairly simple, not to concede early whilst controlling the majority of the match.

Meanwhile Oldham are still fighting for their League One survival (whilst it appears Preston are safe). Rookie boss Lee Johnson described their 2-1 home defeat to Carlisle at the weekend as really poor, and it certainly looked a wretched display. Their movement looked non-existent, a far cry from the efforts during their FA Cup run.

The Latics have used a shielding midfielder for protection, whilst Preston don't concede many. It looks another unders bet for the home team.

Recommended bet:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.80

Sheffield United 1.76 v Crawley Town 5.50, the draw 3.85

Eight of Sheffield United's last nine games have been under 2.5 goals, with three 0-0 correct scorelines. Their home record at Bramall Lane is mighty impressive too - with just 17 goals conceded in 19 outings. The Blades however have also drawn far too many this term, six of them 0-0 according to Opta stats - a league high.

On Saturday, United were held 1-1 at Walsall but they lost their midfield battles, whilst Crawley were absolutely battered on Saturday at the MK Dons and yet came away with a point.

Crawley are a decent footballing team and have drawn four out of their last six games. They have absolutely nothing to lose here with the pressure being on Sheffield United - who are short enough for a cheap lay. I am quite tempted to throw a small bet on the visitors at the price, but the tactic of laying the hosts will have the draw running for me too.

Recommended bets:

Lay Sheffield United @ 1.76

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.90

Crewe Alexandra 3.80 v Brentford 2.10, the draw 3.50

Wednesday 19:45 BST

Brentford are stuttering away from home, but stopped the rot over the weekend with a solid 1-1 performance at Coventry City. Bees boss Uwe Rosler used the tactic of them sitting much deeper, as the game before they pressed much higher up the pitch at the MK Dons (and lost).

Both these sides are very good technically, and I have nothing but praise for Crewe's system of developing players. And it was nice to see them gain their first Football League Trophy on Sunday with a comfortable 2-0 success over Southend.

The market is very much wised-up to the Alex and their expected Wembley comedown. Brentford are short for an away team, but they need to win this to keep alive their automatic promotion hopes. I anticipate a tight game, but I hope the Londoners can shade it.

Recommended bets:

Back Brentford to win 1-0 @ 10.00

Back the draw @ 3.50