Men's French Open Betting: Five potential first round upsets

26May 2013

Roland Garros

Tennis expert Sean Calvert has cast his eye over the draw for the first round of the 2013 French Open and selected five men's matches where the favourite could struggle...

The first round of the 2013 French Open begins on Sunday, with 16 first round matches on day one followed by 28 on day two and the final 20 on day three.

That's weather permitting of course and of the 64 opening round clashes last year there were six genuine upsets, the biggest of which was Adrian Ungur's 13.0 victory over David Nalbandian.

Indeed, of the 64 first round matches last year, 48 were won by favourites and two were void having not completed set one. That is pretty much the same as the Australian Open this year, where there were 47 winning first round favourites.

So, we are looking for about 16 odds-against shots that won't come in. Here are my top five picks.

Nicolas Mahut 5.0 vs Janko Tipsarevic 1.23

Tipsy is in dire form and a foul mood at the moment and he would be on this list against most of the draw, such is his slump right now and although Mahut is no clay court specialist many will recall his good run here in Paris last year when he defeated Andy Roddick and Martin Klizan before taking a set from Roger Federer. Any repeat of that level will be enough against the ailing Serb who has to be a lay or lay-to-back at around 1.23.

Lukas Lacko 5.0 vs Sam Querrey 1.25

Both of these players have appalling records at Roland Garros, with Querrey a perennial first round loser selection in the slams. He can get away with much more on a hard court using just his big serve and forehand, but the old one-two combo isn't as effective on the dirt unless it's quick and he struggles in the longer rallies. Lacko is in poor form but he has won both career meetings with Querrey and the American is a lay at 1.25.

Gael Monfils 4.3 vs Tomas Berdych 1.3

An obvious choice really based on the form of the last few weeks exhibited by the Frenchman, whose ranking had plummeted due to injury but who roared back to form in France picking up the Bordeaux Challenger title and making the final in Nice to be played today. I suspect that the Berdman will come through this one eventually, but it won't be easy if Lamonf continues to display the attacking intent of the last fortnight. Could be a good one for the overs.

Guido Pella 2.5 vs Ivan Dodig 1.60

Another player with a poor record at Roland Garros is Dodig, who has won just one of his five matches at the French Open and his first round opponent Pella showed some decent form and a good level at the Power Horse Cup in Dusseldorf in heavy conditions earlier this week. The Argentine had his chances against eventual champion Juan Monaco and took down Tipsarevic and Viktor Troicki in Germany and Dodig is perhaps favourite for this based on his easy win over Pella at Indian Wells earlier this year. Pella has every chance in these conditions on clay.

Steve Darcis 2.3 vs Michael Llodra 1.78

Diminutive Belgian Darcis has qualified here with wins over Victor Crivoi, Josef Kovalik and Simon Greul and he takes a 1-0 head-to-head record on clay into this clash with Llodra, who won their meetings on quicker surfaces. Indeed, that one clay meeting was here at Roland Garros in 2011 when Darcis won in four sets and Llodra has lost in the first round in three of his last four visits to this tournament and an incredible nine times in all. The Frenchman did reach the final of the Bordeaux Challenger, but for me, now that Darcis has seemingly found his form again after personal problems he has to be the bet at odds-against.

Others that look too short include Grigor Dimitrov at 1.12, who still has plenty to prove in majors against Alejandro Falla, who often raises his level for slams and Andreas Seppi would be on the list if he wasn't facing the out of practice Leo Mayer.