Manchester City v Leeds: Complacency the only danger to the Citizens

16Feb 2013

FA Cup

Mike Norman previews the fifth round tie at the Etihad Stadium, and with this being Man City's only realistic chance of silverware this season he expects no mistakes from the home side...

Man City v Leeds

Sunday 14:00, live on ESPN

Out of the Capital One Cup, out of the Champions League, too poor even to qualify for the Europa League, and seemingly out of the title race. Where does Manchester City's season go from here?

In search of FA Cup glory, that's where!

The trophy they won in 2011 is City's only realistic chance of silverware this season, and for that reason alone you can expect 'won't be sacked' Roberto Mancini to select the strongest side available to him for the visit of Championship outfit Leeds.

That 'strongest side' is unlikely to feature captain Vincent Kompany however as the centre-back is still struggling to shake off a calf injury sustained against Stoke in the last round.

Gareth Barry is also likely to miss out with a minor knock, though Carlos Tevez is available again after missing the defeat to Southampton through personal reasons.

Leeds boss Neil Warnock has the luxury of a virtually full strength squad to choose from though he is likely to stick to his policy of using goalkeeper Jamie Ashdown in cup competitions as opposed to regular stopper Paddy Kenny.

Current form and stats

City's loss to Southampton was their only defeat of 2013, but there have been too many draws and poor performances in recent weeks to suggest that they are anywhere near their title-winning form of last season.

It's away from home where City's problems currently lie however, with recent defeats at Sunderland and Southampton, and a goalless draw at bottom-of-the-table QPR reading particularly poor. At the Etihad Stadium on the other hand their last five games have resulted in four wins to nil and a 2-2 draw with Liverpool.

Winning to nil is also a recurring theme for Man City in the FA Cup. The Citizens have won seven of their last eight FA Cup ties, all achieved without conceding a single goal.

Leeds' form over the last two months has generally been an equal mix of wins and losses, but importantly the wins have come at Elland Road, and the defeats have been away from home - their last six away trips in the Championship read five losses and one draw.

Match Odds

As you'd expect, Man City are short price favourites, but if you take the view that they should win comfortably then there's far better opportunities to profit than simply backing them at 1.2 in this market.

On all known form (City at home, Leeds away), ability, and current stature then Mancini's men ought to win in a common canter, but there's always the chance that complacency can creep in on days like these and that's the one worry I have. If the City players think all they have to do to progress to the next round is turn up then they'll be in for a huge shock.

That's the only concern I have when considering a home win, and becasue so, 1.2 is not a price I want to plough into. Leeds can be backed at 16.5 with the Draw available to back at 8.4.

Half Time/Full Time

As I've already alluded too, if Man City do approach the game in the right manner - and I'm sure they will - then I'm more than confident that they can get their noses in front by half time, and that makes Man City/Man City at 1.6 in this market worth an investment.

Credit to Warnock, he doesn't run scared of the big teams and he sets his sides out to have a go. It would be so easy for him to instruct his team to try and soak up the pressure and see what they can nick at the other end, but there's none of that from the Leeds boss. It worked against Spurs, but it failed against Chelsea in the Capital One Cup.

If Leeds take the game to City then I can see them being picked off quite easily, and hopefully once or twice before the interval.

Correct Score

While my big bet in this game is the one mentioned above I have to throw a few quid at the Any Unquoted outcome at 2.86 in this market. We need any side to score at least four (in all likelihood Man City) to collect, and the way I see this game going I envisage chances galore for the home side.

One or two early goals will enable a great trading opportunity, or you can simply sit back and watch City get a few more goals in the second half. That's the plan anyway!

Recommended Bets

Back Man City HT/Man City FT @ 1.6

Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 2.86