Mali set to gain revenge for opening-round defeat

9Feb 2013

African Cup 2013

Having already guaranteed a regular profit for readers at the tournament, James Eastham picks out the smart bet on the third-place play-off on Saturday afternoon.

Mali v Ghana (Sat)

Live on British Eurosport & ITV4, 19:00 GMT, Match Odds: Mali 3.6, Ghana 2.24, The Draw 3.35.

Who wants to bet on a third-place play-off?

For obvious reasons - lack of motivation, unpredictable team selections and the overall sense of nothing being at stake - makes this is a risky match for bettors no matter what international tournament you're talking about. Often called the game nobody wants to play, the third-place play-off is the one game where it is hard to know what to expect from players whose morale may be low or whose thoughts may have already returned to club commitments.

Looking past at recent African Cup of Nations third-place games, the trend is clearly for low goals. Four of the last six games have featured under 2.5 goals, with three of those games ending in a 1-0 scoreline. At least one of the sides has failed to find the net in four of those six games.

At these finals Ghana have played the better football. The Black Stars picked up more points than Mali (seven versus four) in the opening round, winning 1-0 in the head-to-head clash between the sides in Group B. Ghana ran out comfortable winners of their quarter-finals v Cape Verde (2-0) whereas Mali needed penalties to overcome South Africa). Ghana lost only on penalties in the semi-finals while Mali were thrashed 4-1 by Nigeria. It's therefore no surprise to see Ghana installed as 2.24 favourites to win this game in 90 minutes.

Yet I would say the strong form pattern has limited bearing on a game like this. You could argue, for example, that Ghana's motivation would be lower than Mali's because Ghana's disappointment at failing to reach the final (they were tournament favourites going into the last-four clashes) will be all the greater, and Mali will also be motivated to make up for losing 1-0 in that clash in the first round. Against that, you could also argue Ghana will be looking for revenge having lost 2-0 to Mali in the third-place play-off 12 months ago.

Taking all factors into account, I would back the underdogs with some sort of Asian Handicap start. I think Ghana will struggle to be in the right frame of mind for this game because they know they have missed a massive opportunity to lift the trophy, having gone into the semi-finals with tournament favourites Ivory Coast's elimination having left the route to glory wide-open for them. Mali are more likely to go out and purely play for pleasure, which could reap benefits in a game with nothing at stake.